No abstract

Please cite this article as: Bodoque, J.M., Amerigo, M., Díez-Herrero, A., García, J.A., Cortés, B., BallesterosCánovas, J.A., Olcina, J., Improvement of resilience of urban areas by integrating social perception in flash-flood risk management, Journal of Hydrology (2016), doi: http://dx.doi.org/10. 1016/j.jhydrol.2016.02.005 This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain. AbstractIn urban areas prone to flash floods, characterization of social resilience is critical to guarantee the success of emergency management plans. In this study, we present the methodological approach that led to the submission and subsequent approval of the Civil Protection Plan of Navaluenga (Central Spain), in which the first phase was to analyse flood hazard by combining the Hydrological Modelling System (HEC-HMS) and the Iber 2D hydrodynamic model. We then analysed social vulnerability and designed measures to put into practice within the framework of the Civil Protection Plan. At a later phase, we assessed citizens' flash-flood risk perception and level of awareness regarding some key variables of the Civil Protection Plan. To this end, 254 adults representing roughly 12% of the population census were interviewed. Responses were analysed descriptively, comparing awareness regarding preparedness and response actions with the corresponding information 2 and behaviours previously defined in the Civil Protection Plan. In addition, we carried out a latent class cluster analysis aimed at identifying the different groups present among the interviewees. Our results showed that risk perception is low. Specifically, 60.8% of the interviewees showed low risk perception and low awareness (cluster 1);24.4% had high risk perception and low awareness (cluster 2), while the remaining 14.8% presented high long-term risk perception and high awareness (cluster 3).These findings suggest the need for integrating these key variables of social risk perception and local tailored information in emergency management plans, especially in urban areas prone to flash-floods where response times are limited.

Drought is a climatic risk with notable repercussions on water supply systems. The aim of this study is to analyze the principal measures for management and planning implemented during recent decades in south-eastern Spain (Segura River Basin) to respond to drought situations, focusing on the role played by non-conventional water resources (desalination and treated water). The results demonstrate that the study area (despite being one of the driest places of Spain) is less vulnerable to drought than regions with an Atlantic climate and greater availability of water. This has been possible thanks to the integration of non-conventional water resources as a means of adaptation to confront this natural risk, which is estimated to become more intense and frequent in the future owing to climate change.

In recent decades, there has been a significant increase in economic losses caused by flood events on the coastal region of south-eastern Spain. The increase of extreme rainfall events forecast by the climate change models is currently not reflected in the statistics which suggests that the principal cause is due to the exposure experienced within the past 40 years. Consequently, it is interesting to evaluate the effect of urban growth in flood-prone areas and the role played by government institutions in mitigating the increase in exposure. For this study, the cadastral information and the hydrological modelling data for the return periods of 10, 50, 100 and 500 years were used. This allows high-resolution spatial-temporal results to be obtained that show one of the most significant growths in exposure in Spain and Europe, as well as the low efficiency that risk mitigation measures have had.

Abstract:Since its inauguration in 1979, the Tagus-Segura Aqueduct has become one of the hydraulic infrastructures that has had the most significant socio-economic repercussions in Spain during the past few decades. The aqueduct is significant for its strategic importance and developmental potential for south-east Spain, where it provides water for agriculture as well as for tourism and urban consumption. The aim of this study is to analyze the uncertainties regarding the future functioning of this infrastructure in view of the reduction of water resources and a higher frequency of drought episodes due to climate change. To this end, an analysis was performed on previous studies of hydrological plans, regulations and studies on climate change in order to enable an assessment to be made of the possible effects of these changes on the normal functions of the Tagus-Segura Aqueduct. Consideration is also given to the new management rules that have regulated this infrastructure since 2014, the use of alternative water resources, and proposals such as measures to increase resilience in light of future climate change scenarios and their effects on the Mediterranean.