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SUMMARYHouseholds' choice of the number of leisure trips and the total number of overnight stays is empirically studied using Swedish tourism data. A bivariate hurdle approach separating the participation (to travel and stay the night or not) from the quantity (the number of trips and nights) decision is employed. The quantity decision is modelled with a bivariate mixed Poisson lognormal model allowing for both positive as well as negative correlation between count variables. The observed endogenous variables are drawn from a truncated density and estimation is pursued by simulated maximum likelihood. The estimation results indicate a negative correlation between the number of trips and nights. In most cases own price effects are as expected negative, while estimates of cross-price effects vary between samples.

The integer-valued AR1 model is generalized to encompass some of the more likely features of economic time series of count data. The generalizations come at the price of loosing exact distributional properties. For most specifications the first and second order both conditional and unconditional moments can be obtained. Hence estimation, testing and forecasting are feasible and can be based on least squares or GMM techniques. An illustration based on the number of plants within an industrial sector is considered.Characterization, Dependence, Time series model, Estimation, Forecasting, Entry and exit, JEL Classification: C12, C13, C22, C25, C51,

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Central banks have been made more independent in many countries. A common rationale has been the existence of a credibility (or lack--of--trust) problem for monetary policy. This indicates a possible and until now unexplored link between social trust and central--bank independence. Our empirical findings, based on data from 149 countries, confirm that there is such a link, in the form of a u--shaped relationship. We suggest that two factors help explain this finding: the need for this kind of reform and the ability with which it can be implemented. At low trust levels, the need for central--bank independence is strong enough to dominate the low ability; at high trust levels the ability for reform is high and dominates the low need; at intermediate trust levels there is neither need nor ability strong enough to generate very independent central banks. Terms of use: Documents inJEL classifications: E52, E58, P48, Z13.2