Science diplomacy links the two policy domains of foreign affairs and science policy. Competitive thinking and the ways in which this affects global challenges are now putting the globalisation trends in science, technology and innovation under pressure. Rising populism adds to the growth of de-globalisation politics. In an increasingly knowledge driven world this leads to changes in the roles of diplomats. Their focus has already shifted from relatively neutral scientific collaborations to the technology and innovation interests of their home-countries. What are likely future developments of the field of science, technology and innovation diplomacy? The paper explores the future roles and development of innovation diplomacy as the outcome of interactions between the evolving characteristics of science, technology and innovation on the one hand and of international relations and foreign policies on the other. It is explorative, because there is no research tradition on which it can build and requires bringing together insights from several disciplines in new combinations. Trends in the fields of science, technology and innovation and in the field of international relations (including changes in the mechanisms and institutions for global governance) will be discussed. Together these drivers provide a framework through which potential futures of innovation diplomacy can be explored.

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This paper explores how innovation becomes an increasingly important topic in international relations, with a deep impact on collaboration as well as on competition between countries. It analyses how certain key patterns of techno-economic change lead to changes in the global distribution of innovative activities around the world and how this affects the institutions for global governance. It outlines three near-future scenarios of the international politics of innovation. The first, called "populism and protectionism", describes an international environment which is dominated by populist and nationalist tendencies. The second outlines the approach of "innovation as a global public good", in which everybody benefits, and global collaboration is the dominant model. The third scenario combines a few innovation forces in society, which can be captured as "bottom-up innovation". These scenarios are then brought together in a single framework in which international dimensions of innovation policies that relate to a specific scenario can be mapped. In a next step, the potential consequences for international relations and innovation diplomacy are presented. The final paragraph discusses what Europe can and should do in its external relations to provide adequate answers to the forces outlined in the three scenarios. It results in a vision, which is based on the combination of four policy directions. Together, these offer a framework for aligning the different stakeholders, at the local, regional, national and European level.

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