At the Emerging Markets Forum in October 2010, initial results were presented from an exercise that attempted to measure the resilience of emerging market and developing countries (EMDCs) to deal with shocks to their economies. This paper updates, improves upon, and draws conclusions from that index. A key conclusion is that the Resilience Index appears to have the power both to identify economies that are heading to trouble and to identify the specific policy areas of weakness that lie behind their increasing vulnerablility. The Resilience Index can add to the tools of the economic surveillance process-at least as a device to help insure that weaknesses are surfaced, and that deeper analysis is conducted to assess those weaknesses and suggest corrective policies. It is clear from this analysis that building resilience-and making it a priority of policymakers-can pay high dividends. In particular, we show that the Resilience Index clearly demonstrates that emerging weaknesses in many economies were evident well before the global crisis and the crisis in Europe.
The basic objective of this article is to identify the priority issues that could influence Mexico's longterm economic growth path, and to outline a balanced action program necessary to effectively address these issues. It includes reforms and actions that would simultaneously achieve much higher and more inclusive growth, and would thus restore the sense of pride and optimism among Mexicans that has been eroding in recent years. The issues discussed are of such importance that the legacy of the next presidency could be determined by the administration's willingness and ability to implement the agenda outlined in this article.
Over the next few decades, the United Nations (UN) has projected that the world will experience significant demographic shifts due to lower birth rates and longer lifespans. 1 The world's population aged 65 and above will increase from 12 percent today to 16 percent in 2050, doubling the old-age dependency ratio 2 to 25.2. These demographic shifts would have material implications. Population aging and its dynamics will influence a number of economic variables and behavioral responses, particularly economic growth, productivity, labor force participation, consumption choice, personal savings and thus investment, and public finances. Population aging is unavoidable, but public policies and technological advances may limit some of its adverse effects.
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