This paper studies the relationship between the size of the fiscal multiplier and the degree of capital mobility in some Latin American countries. Mundell's (1963) andFleming's (1962) models show that this effect could be very large or small (close to zero) depending on the exchange rate and the degree of capital mobility, and the potency of a fiscal policy is inversely correlated with the degree of capital mobility. Based on Mora's (2013) model, we argue that the multiplier might not be negatively correlated with capital mobility in these countries. In other words, the potency of fiscal policy could be small because the degree of capital mobility in Latin American countries is quite low. The empirical findings support our hypothesis. We have found that the size of the fiscal multiplier tends to increase or (at least) to remain around 1.40 in these countries in the short run; however, in the long run, this effect tends to decrease significantly to 0.34. These results also suggest that the effectiveness of fiscal policies in Latin American countries are still large but could be larger if they become more financially integrated with the rest of the world. JEL Classifications: E62, E12, F41, O54

This paper proposes a mathematical two-stage decision making model based on dual-decision models from behavioral economics that includes, in addition to cognitive and affective systems, an individualistic human factor and a stochastic shock. The model provides a new vision of the decision-making process and the impact of individualism. In the first stage, the agent´s initial willingness to choose is obtained following traditional economic theory but including an individual human factor, which is composed by the learning process, free will, and other human factors. This allows us to explain the reason why sometimes people are inclined to choose options that seem to be irrational decisions from the view of traditional economics logic. In the second stage, the model explains how the cognitive and affective systems and the influence of a stochastic shock affect the initial willingness to choose, obtained in the first stage. The shock might be produced by those negative and/or positive feelings and information not known or considered previously that allows the individual arrive to the final decision. Finally, our model demonstrates that the individual human factor and the stochastic shock are fundamental elements that define the rational irrationality when traditional economic theory fails to explain individuals´choices.

This study considers how the formation and implementation strategies of a Latin America alliance between four of the best economic performance countries in the region have impacted the quality of entrepreneurship in these countries. To this end, we studied the Pacific Alliance (PA) and employed an ordered probit model with sample selection bias and statistical information from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) database for the 2012–2017 period. As a dependent variable, we used the growth aspiration of entrepreneurs as a proxy to measure the future growth of the company, from which a possible economic impact could be inferred. The evidence shows that during the implementation period of the PA, there is a positive impact on entrepreneur growth aspirations in member countries; the likelihood that entrepreneurs have high-growth aspirations is found to be greater during and after the implementation period than before the signing of the PA. Likewise, it was found that motivation, gender, education, skills, innovation (as perceived by the entrepreneur), export level, two pillars of the global competitiveness index (GCI), and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate explain the growth aspirations of entrepreneurs in the member countries during the period under study.

No abstract

Mediante el cálculo de un índice de convergencia económica y el análisis de correlaciones entre varias variables macroeconómicas, se estudia la posibilidad de convergencia económica entre los países miembros de la Alianza del Pacífico con los de Mercosur. Para ello se utiliza información estadística del periodo 1980-2014. A partir de lo anterior, los resultados no son concluyentes, no es posible determinar el rumbo a seguir por estos dos acuerdos para una expansión y una mayor integración económica, aunque los patrones observados sobre las decisiones de los países miembros para este objetivo sugieren que esta pudiera ser bastante factible en el mediano plazo y el índice de convergencia económica refleja esa tendencia. Sin embargo, el análisis de correlaciones no permite establecer una conclusión definitiva.