This study investigates the occurrence of the Weddell Sea Polynya under an idealized climate change scenario by evaluating simulations from climate models of different ocean resolutions. The GFDL-CM2.6 climate model, with roughly 3.8 km horizontal ocean grid spacing in the high latitudes, forms aWeddell Sea Polynya at similar time and duration under idealized climate change forcing as under pre-industrial forcing. In contrast, all convective models forming the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) show either a cessation or a slowdown of Weddell Sea Polynya events under climate warming. The representation of the Antarctic Slope Current and related Antarctic Slope Front is found to be key in explaining the differences between the two categories of models, with these features being more realistic in CM2.6 than in CMIP5. In CM2.6, the freshwater input driven by sea ice melt and enhanced runoff found under climate warming largely remains on the shelf region since the slope front restricts the lateral spread of the freshwater. In contrast, for most CMIP5 models, open ocean stratification is enhanced by freshening since the absence of a slope front allows coastal freshwater anomalies to spread into the open ocean. This enhanced freshening contributes to the slow down the occurrence ofWeddell Sea Polynyas. Hence, an improved representation of Weddell Sea shelf processes in current climate models is desirable to increase our ability to predict the fate of the Weddell Sea Polynyas under climate change.

Future coastal flood hazard at many locations will be impacted by both tropical cyclone (TC) change and relative sea‐level rise (SLR). Despite sea level and TC activity being influenced by common thermodynamic and dynamic climate variables, their future changes are generally considered independently. Here, we investigate correlations between SLR and TC change derived from simulations of 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. We first explore correlations between SLR and TC activity by inference from two large‐scale factors known to modulate TC activity: potential intensity (PI) and vertical wind shear. Under the high emissions SSP5‐8.5, SLR is strongly correlated with PI change (positively) and vertical wind shear change (negatively) over much of the western North Atlantic and North West Pacific, with global mean surface air temperature (GSAT) modulating the co‐variability. To explore the impact of the joint changes on flood hazard, we conduct climatological–hydrodynamic modeling at five sites along the US East and Gulf Coasts. Positive correlations between SLR and TC change alter flood hazard projections, particularly at Wilmington, Charleston and New Orleans. For example, if positive correlations between SLR and TC changes are ignored in estimating flood hazard at Wilmington, the average projected change to the historical 100 years storm tide event is under‐estimated by 12%. Our results suggest that flood hazard assessments that neglect the joint influence of these factors and that do not reflect the full distribution of GSAT change may not accurately represent future flood hazard.

Hurricane storm surge represents a significant threat to coastal communities around the world. Here, we use artificial neural network (ANN) models to predict storm surge levels using hurricane characteristics along the US Gulf and East Coasts. The ANN models are trained with storm surge levels from a hydrodynamic model and physical characteristics of synthetic hurricanes which are downscaled from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis using a statistical‐deterministic hurricane model. The ANN models are able to accurately predict storm surge levels with root‐mean‐square errors (RMSE) below 0.2 m and correlation coefficients > 0.85. The ANN models trained with the NCEP data also show satisfactory accuracy (RMSE below 0.7 m; correlation > 0.7) in predicting storm surge levels for hurricanes downscaled from future climate projections. Once trained, we use the ANN models to assess the sensitivity of storm surge levels to variations in hurricane characteristics and local geophysical features. Progressively stronger maximum wind speeds and larger outer radius sizes independently increase storm surge levels at all locations along the US East and Gulf Coasts. The response of storm surge levels to changes in hurricane translation speed, however, is found to be sensitive to coastal configuration, with increases in hurricane translation speed amplifying (reducing) storm surge levels in open ocean (semi‐enclosed) regions.

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