There is considerable industry excitement about the curative potential of cell and gene therapies, but significant challenges remain in designing cost-effective treatments that are accessible globally. We have taken a modeling-based approach to define the cost and value drivers for cell therapy assets during pharmaceutical drug development. We have created a model development program for a lentiviral modified ex vivo autologous T cell therapy for Oncology indications. Using internal and external benchmarks, we have estimated the total out-of-pocket cost of development for an Oncology cell therapy asset from target identification to filing of marketing application to be $500-600 million. Our model indicates that both clinical and Chemistry Manufacturing and Controls (CMC) cost of development for cell therapies are higher due to unique considerations of ex vivo autologous cell therapies. We have computed a threshold revenue-generating patient number for our model asset that enables selection of assets that can address high unmet medical need and generate pipeline value. Using statistical approaches, we identified that short time to market (<5 years) and reduced commercial cost of goods (<$65,000 per dose) will be essential in developing competitive assets and we propose solutions to reduce both. We emphasize that teams must proactively plan alternate development scenarios with clear articulation of path to value generation and greater patient access. We recommend using a modeling-based approach to enable data driven go/no-go decisions during multigenerational cell therapy development.

After two decades of focused development and some recent clinical successes, cell and gene therapy (CGT) is emerging as a promising approach to personalized medicines. Genetically engineered cells as a medical modality are poised to stand alongside or in combination with small molecule and biopharmaceutical approaches to bring new therapies to patients globally. Big pharma can have a vital role in industrializing CGT by focusing on diseases with high unmet medical need and compelling genetic evidence. Pharma should invest in manufacturing and supply chain solutions that deliver reproducible, high-quality therapies at a commercially viable cost. Owing to the fast pace of innovation in this field proactive engagement with regulators is critical. It is also vital to understand the needs of patients all along the patient care pathway and to establish product pricing that is accepted by prescribers, payers and patients.

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