We calculated the long-term risks of death from smoking for individuals of various ages and smoking status in terms of the excess mortality contributed by smoking, over and above the baseline mortality from the same diseases caused by factors other than smoking using standard life table procedures. Since mortality data for specific smoking categories were available only from prospective studies in the late 1950s, we scaled these to the 1982 mortality levels. We assumed, for lung cancer, that the death rates for nonsmokers have not changed and, for other smoking-related diseases, that the risks of death for smokers relative to those for nonsmokers have not changed since the 1950s. Probabilities that result from alternative assumptions were also investigated and are

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