Although much can be deduced from fossils alone, estimating abundance and preservation rates of extinct species requires data from living species. Here, we use the relationship between population density and body mass among living species combined with our substantial knowledge of Tyrannosaurus rex to calculate population variables and preservation rates for postjuvenile T. rex. We estimate that its abundance at any one time was ~20,000 individuals, that it persisted for ~127,000 generations, and that the total number of T. rex that ever lived was ~2.5 billion individuals, with a fossil recovery rate of 1 per ~80 million individuals or 1 per 16,000 individuals where its fossils are most abundant. The uncertainties in these values span more than two orders of magnitude, largely because of the variance in the density–body mass relationship rather than variance in the paleobiological input variables.
As practitioners of a historical science, paleontologists and geoscientists are well versed in the idea that the ability to understand and to anticipate the future relies upon our collective knowledge of the past. Despite this understanding, the fundamental role that the history of paleontology and the geosciences plays in shaping the structure and culture of our disciplines is seldom recognized and therefore not acted upon sufficiently. Here, we present a brief review of the history of paleontology and geology in Western countries, with a particular focus on North America since the 1800s. Western paleontology and geology are intertwined with systematic practices of exclusion, oppression, and erasure that arose from their direct participation in the extraction of geological and biological resources at the expense of Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC). Our collective failure to acknowledge this history hinders our ability to address these issues meaningfully and systemically in present-day educational, academic, and professional settings. By discussing these issues and suggesting some ways forward, we intend to promote a deeper reflection upon our collective history and a broader conversation surrounding racism, colonialism, and exclusion within our scientific communities. Ultimately, it is necessary to listen to members of the communities most impacted by these issues to create actionable steps forward while holding ourselves accountable for the past.
The distribution of last occurrences of fossil taxa in a stratigraphic column are used to infer the pattern, timing and tempo of extinction from the fossil record. Clusters of last occurrences are commonly interpreted as an abrupt pulse of extinction. However, stratigraphic architecture alone can produce clusters of last occurrences that can be misinterpreted as an extinction pulse. These clusters will typically occur in strata that immediately underlie facies changes and sequence‐stratigraphic surfaces. It has been proposed that a basin‐wide analysis of the fossil record within a sequence‐stratigraphic framework can be used to distinguish between clusters of last occurrences caused solely by extinction pulses from those generated by sequence‐stratigraphic architecture. A basin‐wide approach makes it possible to observe lateral facies shifts in response to sea‐level change, mitigating the effects of stratigraphic architecture. Using computer simulations of plausible Late Ordovician mass‐extinction scenarios tuned to an inferred Late Ordovician sea‐level curve, we show that stratigraphically‐generated clusters of last occurrences are observed even in basin‐wide analyses of the simulated fossil records due to the basin‐wide loss of preferred facies for many taxa. Nonetheless, we demonstrate that by coarsening the stratigraphic resolution to the systems‐tract level and identifying facies preferences of simulated taxa, we can filter out taxa whose last occurrences coincide with the basin‐wide loss of their preferred facies. This enables consistent identification of the underlying extinction pattern for a wide variety of extinction scenarios. Applying this approach to empirical field data can help to constrain underlying extinction patterns from the fossil record.
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