PurposeTo review and synthesise prognostic indices that predict subsequent risk, prescriptive indices that moderate treatment response, and mechanisms that underlie each with respect to relapse and recurrence of depression in adults.Results and conclusionsChildhood maltreatment, post-treatment residual symptoms, and a history of recurrence emerged as strong prognostic indicators of risk and each could be used prescriptively to indicate who benefits most from continued or prophylactic treatment. Targeting prognostic indices or their “down-stream” consequences will be particularly beneficial because each is either a cause or a consequence of the causal mechanisms underlying risk of recurrence. The cognitive and neural mechanisms that underlie the prognostic indices are likely addressed by the effects of treatments that are moderated by the prescriptive factors. For example, psychosocial interventions that target the consequences of childhood maltreatment, extending pharmacotherapy or adapting psychological therapies to deal with residual symptoms, or using cognitive or mindfulness-based therapies for those with prior histories of recurrence. Future research that focuses on understanding causal pathways that link childhood maltreatment, or cognitive diatheses, to dysfunction in the neocortical and limbic pathways that process affective information and facilitate cognitive control, might result in more enduring effects of treatments for depression.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic and nationally mandated restrictions to control the virus have been associated with increased mental health issues. However, the differential impact of the pandemic and lockdown on groups of individuals, and the personal characteristics associated with poorer outcomes are unknown. Method: Data from 21938 adults in England who participated in a stratified cohort study were analysed. Trajectories of depression and anxiety symptoms were identified using growth mixture modelling (GMM). Multinomial and logistic regression models were constructed to identify sociodemographic and personalityrelated risk factors associated with trajectory class membership. Results: Four trajectories of depression and five for anxiety were identified. The most common group presented with low symptom severity throughout, other classes were identified that showed: severe levels of symptoms which increased; moderate symptoms throughout; worsening mental health during lockdown but improvements after lockdown ended; and for anxiety only, severe initial anxiety that decreased quickly during lockdown. Age, gender, ethnicity, income, previous diagnoses, living situation, personality factors, and sociability were associated with different trajectories. Conclusions: Nearly thirty-percent of participants experienced trajectories with symptoms in the clinical range during lockdown, and did not follow the average curve or majority group, highlighting the importance of differential trajectories. Young, female, outgoing and sociable people, and essential workers, experienced severe anxiety around the announcement of lockdown which rapidly decreased. Younger individuals with lower incomes and previous mental health diagnoses experienced higher and increasing levels of symptoms. Recognising the likely symptom trajectories for such groups may allow for targeted care or interventions.

To determine the current state of knowledge regarding the effects of deployment length and a 'mismatch' between the expected and actual length of deployments on the health and well-being of military personnel in order to draw relevant conclusions for all organisations that deploy personnel to conflict zones. A systematic review was conducted of studies measuring deployment length to theatres of operations and the issue of 'mismatch' between expected and actual tour lengths. The nine studies included were rated for quality. Of the nine studies reviewed, six were rated as high quality, two as moderate quality and one as low quality. Seven of these studies found adverse effects of longer deployments on health and well-being. The two studies that measured 'mismatch' found adverse effects on mental health and well-being when deployments lasted longer than personnel expected. There are a limited number of studies which have assessed the effects of deployment length and very few that have assessed the effects of 'mismatch' on health and well-being. However, this review suggests that, as deployment length increases, the potential for personnel to suffer adverse health effects also increases. Further research is required to investigate the effects of spending prolonged periods of time away from family and friends, especially when deployment lasts longer than expected by personnel. These results are important not only for the Armed Forces, but also for other organisations that place employees in similar working conditions. Taking account of these findings may allow better preparation for the potentially harmful effects that deployments can have on employees' health and well-being.

HighlightsFour distinct depressive & 5 distinct anxious symptom trajectories were identified.Most were distinguishable by session 3 but two depressive trajectories were not.Determining “not on track” status at session 3 may lead to missing late-responders.Baseline severity, functioning and diagnosis predicted some trajectories.Identifying likely trajectories could inform decision-making and optimise care.