Globally, many coral reefs have fallen into negative carbonate budget states, where biological erosion exceeds carbonate production. The compounding effects of urbanization and climate change have caused reductions in coral cover and shifts in community composition that may limit the ability of reefs to maintain rates of vertical accretion in line with rising sea levels. Here we report on coral reef carbonate budget surveys across seven coral reefs in Singapore, which persist under chronic turbidity and in highly disturbed environmental conditions, with less than 20% light penetration to 2 m depth. Results show that mean net carbonate budgets across Singapore’s reefs were relatively low, at 0.63 ± 0.27 kg CaCO3 m−2 yr−1 (mean ± 1 SE) with a range from − 1.56 to 1.97, compared with the mean carbonate budgets across the Indo-Pacific of 1.4 ± 0.15 kg CaCO3 m−2 yr−1, and isolated Indian Ocean reefs pre-2016 bleaching (~ 3.7 kg CaCO3 m−2 yr−1). Of the seven reefs surveyed, only one reef had a net negative, or erosional budget, due to near total loss of coral cover (< 5% remaining coral). Mean gross carbonate production on Singapore’s reefs was dominated by stress-tolerant and generalist species, with low-profile morphologies, and was ~ 3 kg m−2 yr−1 lower than on reefs with equivalent coral cover elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific. While overall these reefs are maintaining and adding carbonate structure, their mean vertical accretion potential is below both current rates of sea level rise (1993–2010), and future predictions under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. This is likely to result in an increase of 0.2–0.6 m of water above Singapore’s reefs in the next 80 yr, further narrowing the depth range over which these reefs can persist.

Non-consumptive fear effects are an important determinant of foraging decisions by consumers across a range of ecosystems. However, how fear effects associated with the presence of predators interact with those associated with habitat structure remain unclear. Here, we used predator fish models ( Plectropomus leopardus ) and experimental patches of the macroalga Sargassum ilicifolium of varying densities to investigate how predator- and habitat-associated fear effects influence herbivory on coral reefs. We found the removal of macroalgal biomass (i.e. herbivory) was shaped by the interaction between predator- and habitat-associated fear effects. Rates of macroalgal removal declined with increasing macroalgal density, likely due to increased visual occlusion by denser macroalgae patches and reduced ability of herbivorous fishes to detect the predators. The presence of the predator model reduced herbivory within low macroalgal density plots, but not within medium- and high-density macroalgal plots. Our results suggest that fear effects due to predator presence were greatest at low macroalgal density, yet these effects were lost at higher densities possibly due to greater predation risk associated with habitat structure and/or the inability of herbivorous fishes to detect the predator model.

Macroalgal removal is a critical ecosystem function yet few studies have considered its temporal variability, especially on impacted reefs with limited herbivorous fish biodiversity. To address this, we quantified macroalgal removal and mass-standardised bite rates of herbivorous fishes monthly from July 2016 to June 2017 using a series of transplanted Sargassum ilicifolium assays and underwater video cameras on three degraded coral reefs in Singapore: Pulau Satumu, Kusu Island, and Terumbu Pempang Tengah. Our results revealed a distinct temporal pattern in macroalgal herbivory (proportion of biomass removed and mass-standardised bite rates) rates across all sites, increasing from July and decreasing from January, with the highest rates recorded in December (28.10 ± 3.05 g 3.5 h−1; 208.24 ± 29.99 mass-standardised bites 3.5 h−1) and the lowest in May (0.86 ± 0.17 g 3.5 h−1; 9.55 ± 3.19 mass-standardised bites 3.5 h−1). These coincided with the S. ilicifolium growth cycle, confirming previous evidence that herbivory rates are closely linked to macroalgal condition. Video analyses revealed nine species feeding over a year (31,839 bites; 8702.89 mass-standardised bites), with Siganus virgatus responsible for $$\sim $$ ∼ 80% of the total mass-standardised bites. Siganus virgatus took the largest proportion of bites monthly, except between April and June, when Scarus rivulatus was dominant, suggesting temporal constraints in functional roles.

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