Abstract. Among the most important challenges faced by ice flow models is how to represent basal and rheological conditions, which are challenging to obtain from direct observations. A common practice is to use numerical inversions to calculate estimates for the unknown properties, but there are many possible methods and not one standardised approach. As such, every ice flow model has a unique initialisation procedure. Here we compare the outputs of inversions from three different ice flow models, each employing a variant of adjoint-based optimisation to calculate basal sliding coefficients and flow rate factors using the same observed surface velocities and ice thickness distribution. The region we focus on is the Amundsen Sea Embayment in West Antarctica, the subject of much investigation due to rapid changes in the area over recent decades. We find that our inversions produce similar distributions of basal sliding across all models, despite using different techniques, implying that the methods used are highly robust and represent the physical equations without much influence by individual model behaviours. Transferring the products of inversions between models results in time-dependent simulations displaying variability on the order of or lower than existing model intercomparisons. Focusing on contributions to sea level, the highest variability we find in simulations run in the same model with different inversion products is 32 %, over a 40-year period, a difference of 3.67 mm. There is potential for this to be improved with further standardisation of modelling processes, and the lowest variability within a single model is 13 %, or 1.82 mm over 40 years. While the successful transfer of inversion outputs from one model to another requires some extra effort and technical knowledge of the particular models involved, it is certainly possible and could indeed be useful for future intercomparison projects.
Abstract. Among the most important challenges faced by ice flow models is how to represent basal and rheological conditions, which are challenging to obtain from direct observations. A common practice is to use numerical inversions to calculate estimates for the unknown properties, but there are many possible methods and not one standardised approach. As such, every ice flow model has a unique initialisation procedure. Here we compare the outputs of inversions from three different ice flow models, each employing a variant of adjoint-based optimisation to calculate basal sliding coefficients and flow rate factors using the same observed surface velocities and ice thickness distribution. The region we focus on is the Amundsen Sea Embayment in West Antarctica, the subject of much investigation due to rapid changes in the area over recent decades. We find that our inversions produce similar distributions of basal sliding across all models, despite using different techniques, implying that the methods used are highly robust and represent the physics without much influence by individual model behaviours. Transferring the products of inversions between models results in time-dependent simulations displaying variability on the order of or lower than existing model intercomparisons and process studies. While the successful transfer of inversion outputs from one model to another requires some extra effort and technical knowledge of the particular models involved, it is certainly possible and could indeed be useful for future intercomparison projects.
Abstract. Ice sheet models use a wide range of sliding laws to define a relationship between ice velocity and basal drag, generally comprising some combination of a Weertman-style power law and Coulomb friction. The exact nature of basal sliding is not known from observational data, making assessment of the suitability of different sliding laws difficult. The question of how much this choice could affect predictions of future ice sheet evolution is an important one. Here we conduct a model study of a large sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), a particularly critical component of the cryosphere, using a range of sliding parameterisations, and we provide an assessment of the sensitivity of ice loss to the choice of sliding law. We show that, after initialisation, various sliding laws result in broadly similar ranges of sea level contribution over 100 years, with the range primarily dependent on exact parameter values used in each sliding law. Comparing mass loss from Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers and the neighbouring regions reveals significant qualitative geographical differences in the relationship between sliding parameters and the modelled response to changes in forcing. We show that the responses do not necessarily follow universal systematic patterns, and, in particular, higher values of the sliding exponent m do not necessarily imply larger rates of mass loss. Despite differences in the magnitudes of ice loss and rates of change in the system, all of our experiments display broad similarities in behaviour which serve to reinforce the decade-to-century-scale predictive power of ice sheet models, regardless of the choice of basal sliding.
Thwaites Glacier, one of the largest ice streams in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (Figure 1), drains a large area of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Its ice volume holds the equivalent of E 0.65 m of sea level (Morlighem et al., 2020), and is resting on deep bedrock, a wide channel below sea level that spreads under WAIS to the Ross Sea Embayment (Fretwell et al., 2013;Holt et al., 2006). The retrograde slope of this channel makes Thwaites potentially vulnerable to marine ice sheet instability (Gudmundsson et al., 2012;Schoof, 2007;Weertman, 1974), a positive feedback of grounding line retreat and increased ice discharge which may lead ultimately to WAIS's collapse over the coming centuries (
A B S T R A C TGeothermal heating is increasingly recognised as an important factor affecting ocean circulation, with modelling studies suggesting that this heat source could lead to first-order changes in the formation rate of Antarctic Bottom Water, as well as a significant warming effect in the abyssal ocean. Where it has been represented in numerical models, however, the geothermal heat flux into the ocean is generally treated as an entirely conductive flux, despite an estimated one third of the global geothermal flux being introduced to the ocean via hydrothermal sources.A modelling study is presented which investigates the sensitivity of the geothermally forced circulation to the way heat is supplied to the abyssal ocean. An analytical two-dimensional model of the circulation is described, which demonstrates the effects of a volume flux through the ocean bed. A simulation using the NEMO numerical general circulation model in an idealised domain is then used to partition a heat flux between conductive and hydrothermal sources and explicitly test the sensitivity of the circulation to the formulation of the abyssal heat flux. Our simulations suggest that representing the hydrothermal flux as a mass exchange indeed changes the heat distribution in the abyssal ocean, increasing the advective heat transport from the abyss by up to 35% compared to conductive heat sources. Consequently, we suggest that the inclusion of hydrothermal fluxes can be an important addition to course-resolution ocean models.
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