The gas-exchange and radial growth responses of conifer forests to climatic warming and increasing atmospheric CO2 have been widely studied. However, the modulating effects of variables related to stand structure (e.g., tree-to-tree competition) on those responses are poorly explored. The basal-area increment (BAI) and C isotope discrimination (C stable isotope ratio; delta13C) in the Mediterranean fir Abies pinsapo were investigated to elucidate the influences of stand competition, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate on intrinsic water-use efficiency (WUEi). We assessed the variation in delta13C of tree-rings from dominant or co-dominant trees subjected to different degrees of competition. A high- (H) and a low-elevation (L) population with contrasting climatic constraints were studied in southern Spain. Both populations showed an increase in long-term WUEi. However, this increase occurred more slowly at the L site, where a decline of BAI was also observed. Local warming and severe droughts have occurred in the study area over the past 30 years, which have reduced water availability more at lower elevations. Contrastingly, trees from the H site were able to maintain high BAI values at a lower cost in terms of water consumption. In each population, trees subjected to a higher degree of competition by neighboring trees showed lower BAI and WUEi than those subjected to less competition, although the slopes of the temporal trends in WUEi were independent of the competitive micro-environment experienced by the trees. The results are consistent with an increasing drought-induced limitation of BAI and a decreasing rate of WUEi improvement in low-elevation A. pinsapo forests. This relict species might not be able to mitigate the negative effects of a decrease in water availability through a reduction in stomatal conductance, thus leading to a growth decline in the more xeric sites. An intense and poorly asymmetric competitive environment at the stand level may also act as an important constraint on the adaptive capacity of these drought-sensitive forests to climatic warming.

Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last ∼20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.

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