Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.

Wild cherry (Prunus avium L.), a partially asexual self-incompatible forest tree, shows heterozygote excess, which is a poorly studied phenomenon. In three natural populations, we found significant heterozygote excess at almost all investigated loci (eight microsatellites and markers for the self-incompatibility locus). We examined four hypotheses to account for this observed heterozygote excess. First, negative F(IS) can result from a lack of selfed progeny in small populations of outcrossing species. A second explanation for negative F(IS) is selection during the life cycle of the most heterozygous individuals. A third explanation is negative assortative mating when reproduction occurs between individuals bearing phenotypes more dissimilar than by chance. The last explanation for negative F(IS) relies on asexual reproduction. Expectations for each hypothesis were tested using empirical data. Patterns of F(IS) differed among loci. Nevertheless, our experimental results did not confirm the small sample size hypothesis. Although one locus is probably under a hitch-hiking effect from the SI locus, we rejected the effect of the self-incompatibility locus for the genome as a whole. Similarly, although one locus showed a clear pattern consistent with the selection of heterozygous individuals, the heterosis effect over the whole genome was rejected. Finally, our results revealed that clonality probably explains significant negative F(IS) in wild cherry populations when considering all individuals. More theoretical effort is needed to develop expectations and hypotheses, and test them in the case of species combining self-incompatibility and partially asexual reproduction.