This study investigates the spatial effects of the service frequency and transport interchange facilities of rail stations on residential property values for the entire metropolitan train network in Melbourne. Residential properties are classified as either detached or attached dwellings. Given that a traditional hedonic price model cannot handle the spatial dependence and spatial non-stationarity of the housing market, several geographically weighted regression (GWR) models are used and multicollinearity is considered; the model with the Euclidean distance metric outperforms others. Results indicate that the service frequency and facilities of the stations influence the residential property values in a spatially variable way. For every 1 km closer to the train stations, an increase in the frequency of the train services per unit results in a change in the residential property values ranging from −4.01% to 2.71%; an improvement in the transport interchange facilities per unit results in a change in the residential property values ranging from −29.93% to 47.04%. Crime and retail activities that indirectly affect the relationship between rail stations and residential property values are also identified. For every 1 km closer to the train stations, the crime density increases significantly from 5.64% to 42.88% and this occurs in one-fifth of the areas in Melbourne. In contrast, the relationship between retail activities and train stations remains spatially stable. This study complements the relatively scarce literature on the link between railway service levels and residential property values while extending the case study to the local level.
Comment [KM14]: Updated Figure after reworking with the data Comment [KM15]: Figure changed to reflect the changes after reworking with data-Referee 2 Comment [KM16]: Figure changed to reflect the changes after reworking with data-Referee 2 Comment [KM17]: Figure changed to reflect the changes after reworking with data-Referee 2 Comment [KM18]: Figure changed to reflect the changes after reworking with data-Referee 2
Purpose
Uncertainties in residential property investment performance require that real estate assets are designed in a flexible manner to respond to impacts of market dynamics. Though estimating the cost of flexibility is straightforward, assessing the economic value of flexibility is not. The purpose of this study is to explore the potential practical application of real option analysis to determine the economic value of a switching output flexibility embedded in a residential property investment in Australia. The study involves the exploration of an optimal strategy for investment in a residential development through real option analysis and valuation of a mixed use investment.
Design/methodology/approach
The real option valuation model developed by McDonald and Siegel (1986) is adopted for the evaluation because the switching output flexibility is likened to a perpetual American call option with dividend payout.
Findings
Through real option analysis, the economic value of switching output flexibility of the mixed use building was determined to be higher than the initial upfront costs. Moreover, a payoff of about $4million was determined to be the value of the switching output flexibility, therefore justifying upfront investments in flexibility as an uncertainty and risk management tool.
Practical implications
This application is an important demonstration of the practical use of options pricing techniques (real options analysis) and delivers further evidence needed to support the adoption of real option valuation in practice. Flexibility can also enhance risks and uncertainty management in residential property investment better than the adjustment of discount rates.
Originality/value
There is limited evidence on the use of real options techniques for the valuation of switching output flexibility in practice, and this comes as an original application; both the case study and data are all initial applications of switching flexibility in the Australian property market.
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