The heterogeneity of progression of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) is not well understood. This study investigates which geometrical and mechanical factors, determined using time-resolved 3D ultrasound (3D + t US), correlate with increased growth of the aneurysm. The AAA diameter, volume, wall curvature, distensibility, and compliance in the maximal diameter region were determined automatically from 3D + t echograms of 167 patients. Due to limitations in the field-of-view and visibility of aortic pulsation, measurements of the volume, compliance of a 60 mm long region and the distensibility were possible for 78, 67, and 122 patients, respectively. Validation of the geometrical parameters with CT showed high similarity, with a median similarity index of 0.92 and root-mean-square error (RMSE) of diameters of 3.5 mm. Investigation of Spearman correlation between parameters showed that the elasticity of the aneurysms decreases slightly with diameter (p = 0.034) and decreases significantly with mean arterial pressure (p < 0.0001). The growth of a AAA is significantly related to its diameter, volume, compliance, and surface curvature (p < 0.002). Investigation of a linear growth model showed that compliance is the best predictor for upcoming AAA growth (RMSE 1.70 mm/year). To conclude, mechanical and geometrical parameters of the maximally dilated region of AAAs can automatically and accurately be determined from 3D + t echograms. With this, a prediction can be made about the upcoming AAA growth. This is a step towards more patient-specific characterization of AAAs, leading to better predictability of the progression of the disease and, eventually, improved clinical decision making about the treatment of AAAs.

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