This paper is concerned with tests in multivariate
time series models made up of random walk (with drift)
and stationary components. When the stationary component
is white noise, a Lagrange multiplier test of the hypothesis
that the covariance matrix of the disturbances driving
the multivariate random walk is null is shown to be locally
best invariant, something that does not automatically follow
in the multivariate case. The asymptotic distribution of
the test statistic is derived for the general model. The
test is then extended to deal with a serially correlated
stationary component. The main contribution of the paper
is to propose a test of the validity of a specified value
for the rank of the covariance matrix of the disturbances
driving the multivariate random walk. This rank is equal
to the number of common trends, or levels, in the series.
The test is very simple insofar as it does not require
any models to be estimated, even if serial correlation
is present. Its use with real data is illustrated in the
context of a stochastic volatility model, and the relationship
with tests in the cointegration literature is discussed.
The locally most powerful test is derived for the hypothesis that the regression coefficients are constant over time against the alternative that they vary according to the random walk process. When the regression equation contains the constant term only, comparisons are made with the tests suggested by LaMotte and McWhorter (1978). These are based on exact powers and on three different types of asymptotic efficiencies including the classical Pitman and Bahadur approaches and the new one due to Gregory (1980). The concept of the Bahadur efficiency is extended to cover also the random slopes. Suggestions are made for choosing the test.
General methodology is developed here to deal with the association between a a binary variable and network connections with or without confounding covariates. Also the case when the network is observed at several time periods is treated. As an application we consider the diffusion of organic farming in the province of North Karelia in Finland. It turns out that organic farms are more clustered than would be expected under pure random allocation. The neighborhood effect remains when adjusting for the production lines of the farms. The spatio-temporal analysis shows that new adopters are more often found within the neighborhoods of each others and of earlier adopters.
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