Available evidence favors clinician discussion of the pros and cons of PSA screening with average-risk men aged 55 to 69 years. Only men who express a definite preference for screening should have PSA testing. Other strategies to mitigate the potential harms of screening include considering biennial screening, a higher PSA threshold for biopsy, and conservative therapy for men receiving a new diagnosis of prostate cancer.

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Background Observation is underused among men with localized, low-risk prostate cancer. Objective To assess the costs and benefits of observation versus initial treatment. Design Decision analysis simulating treatment or observation. Data Sources Medicare schedules, published literature. Target Population Men ages 65 and 75 years with newly diagnosed low-risk prostate cancer (prostate-specific antigen level <10 μg/L, stage ≤T2a, Gleason score ≤3+3). Time Horizon Lifetime. Perspective Societal. Intervention Treatment (brachytherapy, intensity-modulated radiation therapy, or radical prostatectomy) or observation (active surveillance [AS] or watchful waiting [WW]). Outcome Measures Quality-adjusted life expectancy, costs. Results of Base-Case Analysis Observation was more effective and less costly than initial treatment. Compared with AS, WW provided 2 additional months of quality-adjusted life expectancy (9.02 vs. 8.85 years) at a savings of $15 374 ($24 520 vs. $39 894) in men aged 65 years and 2 additional months (6.14 vs. 5.98 years) at a savings of $11 746 ($18 302 vs. $30 048) in men aged 75 years. Brachytherapy was the most effective and least expensive initial treatment. Results of Sensitivity Analysis Treatment became more effective than observation when it led to more dramatic reductions in prostate cancer death (hazard ratio, 0.47 vs. WW and 0.64 vs. AS). Active surveillance became as effective as WW in men aged 65 years when the probability of progressing to treatment on AS decreased below 63% or when the quality of life with AS versus WW was 4% higher in men aged 65 years or 1% higher in men aged 75 years. Watchful waiting remained least expensive in all analyses. Limitation Results depend on outcomes reported in the published literature, which is limited. Conclusion Among these men, observation is more effective and costs less than initial treatment, and WW is most effective and least expensive under a wide range of clinical scenarios. Primary Funding Source National Cancer Institute, U.S. Department of Defense, Prostate Cancer Foundation, and Blue Shield of California Foundation.