In this single-center, retrospective cohort analysis of hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients, we investigate whether inflammatory biomarker levels predict respiratory decline in patients who initially present with stable disease. Examination of C-reactive protein (CRP) trends reveals that a rapid rise in CRP levels precedes respiratory deterioration and intubation, although CRP levels plateau in patients who remain stable. Increasing CRP during the first 48 h of hospitalization is a better predictor (with higher sensitivity) of respiratory decline than initial CRP levels or ROX indices (a physiological score of respiratory function). CRP, the proinflammatory cytokine interleukin-6 (IL-6), and physiological measures of hypoxemic respiratory failure are correlated, which suggests a mechanistic link. Our work shows that rising CRP predicts subsequent respiratory deterioration in COVID-19 and may suggest mechanistic insight and a potential role for targeted immunomodulation in a subset of patients early during hospitalization.

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Many US states published crisis standards of care (CSC) guidelines for allocating scarce critical care resources during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the performance of these guidelines in maximizing population benefit has not been well tested. In 2,272 adults with COVID-19 requiring ICU admission drawn from the STOP-COVID multicenter cohort, we tested three approaches to CSC algorithms: SOFA scores grouped into ranges, SOFA score ranges plus comorbidities, and a hypothetical approach using raw SOFA scores not grouped into ranges. We found that area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves for all three algorithms demonstrate only modest discrimination for 28-day mortality. Adding comorbidity scoring modestly improves algorithm performance over SOFA scores alone. The algorithm incorporating comorbidities has modestly worse predictive performance for Black compared to White patients. CSC algorithms should be empirically examined to refine approaches to the allocation of scarce resources during pandemics and to avoid potential exacerbation of racial inequities.