No abstract

A strong food and agriculture system is fundamental to economic growth, poverty reduction, environmental sustainability, and human health. The Agriculture and Food Series is intended to prompt public discussion and inform policies that will deliver higher incomes, reduce hunger, improve sustainability, and generate better health and nutrition from the food we grow and eat. It expands on the former Agriculture and Rural Development series by considering issues from farm to fork, in both rural and urban settings. Titles in this series undergo internal and external review under the management of the World Bank's Agriculture and Food Global Practice.

In times of highly volatile commodity markets, governments often try to protect their populations from rapidly-rising food prices, which can be particularly harsh for the poor. A potential solution for fooddeficit countries is to hold strategic reserves that are called on when international prices spike. But how large should strategic stockpiles be and what rules should govern their release? In this paper, we develop a dynamic competitive storage model for wheat in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where imported wheat dominates the average diet. We analyze a strategy that sets aside wheat stockpiles, which can be used to keep domestic prices below a targeted price. Our analysis shows that if the target price is set high and reserves are adequate, the strategy can be effective and robust. Contrary to most interventions, strategic storage policies are counter-cyclical and, when the importing region is sufficiently large, a regional policy can smooth global prices. Simulations indicate this is the case for the MENA region. Nevertheless, the policy is more costly than a pro-cyclical policy similar to food stamps that uses targeted transfers to directly offset high prices with a subsidy.

In 2007 and the first half of 2008, a sharp rise in agricultural commodity and food prices triggered grave concerns about food security, malnutrition and increased poverty. While the threat of a prolonged food-price shock receded in the second half of 2008, many factors underlying the price volatility are likely to persist, and will require careful management if future food-price shocks are to be avoided. This paper suggests three strategies that, together, could reduce vulnerability to price shocks: (1) strengthen safety nets, improve access to family planning services, and promote education; (2) enhance domestic food production and improve rural livelihoods through increased investment in research and development to increase productivity; and (3) reduce exposure to market volatility through more efficient supply chains and better use of financial instruments to hedge risk. The challenge of food security will require a global response, involving governments, international and regional funding and lending institutions, United Nations agencies, non-governmental organizations, civil society, and the private sector.

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