Abstract. The McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs) of Antarctica are a polar desert ecosystem consisting of alpine glaciers, ice-covered lakes, streams, and expanses of vegetation-free rocky soil. Because average summer temperatures are close to 0 ∘C, the MDV ecosystem in general, and glacier melt dynamics in particular, are both closely linked to the energy balance. A slight increase in incoming radiation or change in albedo can have large effects on the timing and volume of meltwater. However, the seasonal evolution or spatial variability of albedo in the valleys has yet to fully characterized. In this study, we aim to understand the drivers of landscape albedo change within and across seasons. To do so, a box with a camera, GPS, and shortwave radiometer was hung from a helicopter that flew transects four to five times a season along Taylor Valley. Measurements were repeated over three seasons. These data were coupled with incoming radiation measured at six meteorological stations distributed along the valley to calculate the distribution of albedo across individual glaciers, lakes, and soil surfaces. We hypothesized that albedo would decrease throughout the austral summer with ablation of snow patches and increasing sediment exposure on the glacier and lake surfaces. However, small snow events (<6 mm water equivalent) coupled with ice whitening caused spatial and temporal variability of albedo across the entire landscape. Glaciers frequently followed a pattern of increasing albedo with increasing elevation, as well as increasing albedo moving from east to west laterally across the ablation zone. We suggest that spatial patterns of albedo are a function of landscape morphology trapping snow and sediment, longitudinal gradients in snowfall magnitude, and wind-driven snow redistribution from east to west along the valley. We also compare our albedo measurements to the MODIS albedo product and found that overall the data have reasonable agreement. The mismatch in spatial scale between these two datasets results in variability, which is reduced after a snow event due to albedo following valley-scale gradients of snowfall magnitude. These findings highlight the importance of understanding the spatial and temporal variability in albedo and the close coupling of climate and landscape response. This new understanding of landscape albedo can constrain landscape energy budgets, better predict meltwater generation on from MDV glaciers, and how these ecosystems will respond to changing climate at the landscape scale.

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V. Conclusions With an adjustment of -0.05 to albedo, the meltwater model can predict streamflow moderately well.  Predicted runoff results show higher efficiency in simulating dynamics but lower efficiency in simulating observed flow magnitudes.  Suggesting that routing assumptions hold (high dynamical efficiency)  Some meltwater sources are being neglected, e.g. ablation zone size or high elevation snow melt (low magnitude efficiency).  Meltwater model results are better for Canada and Taylor (Bonney basin) glaciers.  Increased model bias on Commonwealth and Kukri Hills glaciers suggest that unaccounted ice surface properties, e.g. surface roughness length, are present.  Lake model results show that under-predicting melt inflow limits ability to model lake level change. Particularly at Lake Fryxell and during flood years of 2001-02, 2008-09 and 2010-11.  Lake surface sublimation rates required to fit lake level rise (0.01 to 0.5 m yr -1 ) are less than estimated, real-world values (0.35 to 1 m yr -1 ).

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The McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, are a polar desert populated with numerous closed‐watershed, perennially ice‐covered lakes primarily fed by glacial melt. Lake levels have varied by as much as 8 m since 1972 and are currently rising after a decade of decreasing. Precipitation falls as snow, so lake hydrology is dominated by energy available to melt glacier ice and to sublimate lake ice. To understand the energy and hydrologic controls on lake level changes and to explain the variability between neighboring lakes, only a few kilometers apart, we model the hydrology for the three largest lakes in Taylor Valley. We apply a physically based hydrological model that includes a surface energy balance model to estimate glacial melt and lake sublimation to constrain mass fluxes to and from the lakes. Results show that lake levels are very sensitive to small changes in glacier albedo, air temperature, and wind speed. We were able to balance the hydrologic budget in two watersheds using meltwater inflow and sublimation loss from the ice‐covered lake alone. A third watershed, closest to the coast, required additional inflow beyond model uncertainties. We hypothesize a shallow groundwater system within the active layer, fed by dispersed snow patches, contributes 23% of the inflow to this watershed. The lakes are out of equilibrium with the current climate. If the climate of our study period (1996–2013) persists into the future, the lakes will reach equilibrium starting in 2300, with levels 2–17 m higher, depending on the lake, relative to the 2020 level.