We investigate the growth and survival of nascent businesses by analyzing their bank records. We do not find strong evidence in favour of a taxonomy of growth paths, because we observe that every possible growth path seems to occur with roughly equal probability. However, we observe that survival depends on the business' growth path. Controlling for lagged size, we observe that longer lags of growth, and even start-up size, have significant effects on survival. JEL codes: L25

This paper examines the theory and evidence in support of entrepreneurial leaning (EL). Under this theory entrepreneurial performance is argued to be enhanced by EL which itself is enhanced by business experience. However, if business performance is strongly influenced by chance then evidence of EL will be difficult to identify. We test for EL using a large scale data set comprising 6671 new firms. We choose business survival over three years as our performance measure and then formulate three tests for EL. None of the three tests provide compelling evidence in support of EL.

This paper investigates whether new venture performance becomes easier to predict as the venture ages: does the fog lift? To address this question we primarily draw upon a theoretical framework, initially formulated in a managerial context by Levinthal (Adm Sci Q 36(3):397-420, 1991) that sees new venture sales as a random walk but survival being determined by the stock of available resources (proxied by size). We derive theoretical predictions that are tested with a 10-year cohort of 6579 UK new ventures in the UK. We observe that our ability to predict firm growth deteriorates in the years after entry-in terms of the selection environment, the 'fog' seems to thicken. However, our survival predictions improve with time-implying that the 'fog' does lift.

The authors assess empirically the impact on firm performance of a state-subsidised training-loan scheme for small businesses (the Small Firms Training Loan Scheme). To achieve this assessment, a longitudinal sample of firms that received loans from the leading lender under the scheme, Barclays Bank, and a control sample of otherwise similar nonparticipants with Barclays accounts were studied. The authors present and apply a panel-data methodology for estimating the impact of the scheme on firm growth, which is able to take into account nonrandom selection onto the scheme. The main empirical findings are that participants are both more likely to survive and to grow faster than nonparticipants.

This article theorizes how short-term revenue volatility affects new venture viability and how such volatility develops over time. Tracking the bank accounts of 6,578 new ventures over a 10-year period, we find that, even after controlling for a range of other factors, short-term revenue volatility is a strong predictor of venture exit. Although short-term revenue volatility is associated with the depletion of buffer resources and financial default, surviving ventures do not, on average, decrease their short-term revenue volatility over time. However, short-term revenue volatility decreases at the cohort level due to higher exit rates of volatile ventures.