Aims/hypothesis We examined whether the non-HLA susceptibility locus ERBB3/IKZF4 influences progression of type 1 diabetes stage specifically according to sex. Methods SNPs of ERBB3 (rs2292239 T/G) and IKZF4 (rs1701704 G/T) were screened by allelic discrimination quantitative PCR assay in first-degree relatives of type 1 diabetes patients who had developed at least one circulating autoantibody. The effect of ERBB3/IKZF4 genotypes and sex, on the progression of single autoantibody positivity to multiple autoantibody positivity and from multiple autoantibody positivity to diabetes, was studied by Kaplan–Meier analysis and multivariate Cox regression. Results In the cohort of autoantibody-positive first-degree relatives, the risk allele frequencies for ERBB3 rs2292239 (T) and IKZF4 rs1701704 (G) were increased. There was a significant male excess at the stage of multiple autoantibody positivity (p = 0.021). In Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, progression from single to multiple antibody positivity was delayed in female participants with genotype ERBB3 GG (p = 0.018, vs ERBB3 TG+TT) or IKZF4 TT (p = 0.023, vs IKZF4 GT+GG), but not in male participants. In multivariate Cox regression models, the interaction effects between female sex and ERBB3 GG (p = 0.012; HR = 0.305 [95% CI 0.120, 0.773]) or between female sex and IKZF4 TT (p = 0.011; HR = 0.329 [95% CI 0.140, 0.777]) emerged as potential determinants of delayed progression to multiple autoantibodies. The progression from multiple autoantibody positivity to type 1 diabetes appeared not to be influenced by ERBB3/IKZF4. Conclusions/interpretation In siblings and offspring of type 1 diabetes patients, polymorphism in region ERBB3/IKZF4 may affect disease progression at the level of epitope spreading in female individuals. Our findings suggest that interaction between sex and ERBB3/IKZF4 may contribute to the post-pubertal male excess in type 1 diabetes. Graphical abstract

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The HLA region is the major genetic risk determinant of type 1 diabetes. How non-HLA loci contribute to the genetic risk is incompletely understood, but there are indications that at least some impact progression of asymptomatic autoimmunity. We examined whether SNPs in 7 susceptibility loci (INS, SH2B3, PTPN2, PTPN22, CTLA4, CLEC16A and IL2RA) could improve prediction of the progression from single to multiple autoantibody positivity, and from there on to diagnosis. SNPs were genotyped in persistently autoantibody positive relatives by allelic discrimination qPCR and disease progression was studied by multivariate Cox regression analysis. In our cohort, only the CTLA4 GA genotype (rs3087243, p=0.002) and the CLEC16A AA genotype (rs12708716, p=0.021) were associated with accelerated progression from single to multiple autoantibody positivity, but their effects were restricted to presence of HLA-DQ2/DQ8, and IAA as first autoantibody, respectively. The interaction of CTLA4 and HLA-DQ2/DQ8 overruled the effect of DQ2/DQ8 alone. The HLA-DQ2/DQ8-mediated risk of progression to multiple autoantibodies nearly entirely depended on heterozygosity for CTLA4. The SH2B3 TT genotype (rs3184504) was protective for HLA-DQ8 positive subjects (p=0.003). At the stage of multiple autoantibodies, only the CTLA4 GA genotype was a minor independent risk factor for progression towards clinical diabetes (p=0.034). Our study shows that non-HLA polymorphisms impact progression of islet autoimmunity in a subgroup-, stage- and SNP-specific way, suggesting distinct mechanisms. If confirmed, these findings may help refine risk assessment, follow-up, and prevention trials in risk groups.