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AimThe final island ontogeny of the general dynamic model (GDM) (i.e., before island submergence) in tropical oceans corresponds to the coral atoll stage. Here, we examined whether the species richness of native vascular plants (indigenous and endemic species) on atolls is controlled by spatial and/or physical processes. We also predicted that atolls strongly affected by anthropogenic disturbance would have lower native species richness than predicted by spatial and physical processes.LocationMarshall Islands, Kiribati Islands, Nauru, Niue, Johnston, Cook Islands, French Polynesia and Pitcairn Islands (Pacific Ocean).TaxonNative vascular plants.MethodsWe used stepwise regression to test the relative influence of five biogeographic variables on native species richness. Relationships were assessed for the full set of 111 Pacific coral atolls, as well as for atoll subsets ranging from 9 to 45 atolls. An index of human impact was then estimated, and residuals in the regression model predicting species richness from biogeographic variables were compared with the level of human impact.ResultsA regression model including atoll area, highest atoll elevation, the stepping stone distances from the nearest raised atoll and volcanic island explained native species richness on the 111 Pacific coral atolls. Regression models for different archipelagos and atoll subsets were also significant. Endemic species richness was significantly linked with highest atoll elevation and the stepping stone distances from the nearest raised atoll. Residuals in the biogeographic regression model were barely related to human impact across the 111 atolls but were significantly related to human impact in the Kiribati atolls.Main conclusionsNative species richness on atolls is mainly controlled by physical and spatial characteristics. However, anthropogenic disturbances have altered the predicted pattern of native species richness leading to a lower model fit in some atoll subsets.

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Long-distance dispersal is a key factor explaining the success of invasive alien species, particularly across oceanic islands. However, it is often not feasible to reliably measure long-distance seed dispersal (LDD) over many kilometers in the field. Here, we used a three-dimensional kinematic trajectory model (Computing Atmospheric Trajectory tool [CAT]) initiated on the basis of regional wind field data to assess the potential for LDD of a wind-dispersed invasive tree, Spathodea campanulata (African tulip tree), across the Society Islands (French Polynesia, South Pacific Ocean) following its initial planting and spread on the island of Tahiti. The main objective of our study was to determine whether S. campanulata could be expected to spread naturally among islands. Atmospheric dynamics, seed terminal velocity, precipitation, and temperature of air masses were considered to assess the potential for LDD between oceanic islands, with the island of Tahiti serving as the island source for multiple, geographically distant invasions. Aerial trajectories of modeled S. campanulata seeds indicated that wind-dispersed seeds originating from trees on the island of Tahiti could reach most of the Society Islands and disperse as far as 1364 km. This result suggests that Spathodea can be expected to spread naturally among the Society Islands. When rainfall events were modeled as causal agents of seed settlement, fewer seeds reached distant islands, but more seeds settled on the closest island (20 km away). Including effects of island topography ("barrier effects") also resulted in more seeds settling on the closest island and fewer seeds reaching the most distant islands. Overall, our findings suggest that recent atmospheric models can provide valuable insights into LDD and invasion patterns of wind-dispersed invasive species. K E Y W O R D S atmospheric transport model, barrier effect, biological invasion, tropical oceanic islands