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This paper investigates the relationship between electricity demand and temperature in the European Union. We address this issue by means of a panel threshold regression model on 15 European countries over the last two decades. Our results confirm the non linearity of the link between electricity consumption and temperature found in more limited geographical areas in previous studies. By distinguishing between North and South countries, we also find that this non linear pattern is more pronounced in the warm countries. At last, rolling regressions highlight the significant impact of climate change on electricity use in Europe. JEL Classification: C33, Q41We would like to thank C. Hurlin and G. Celik for their helpful comments and suggestions. All remaining errors are ours.

Previous work has documented a greater sensitivity of long-term government bond yields to fundamentals in Euro area peripheral countries during the euro crisis, but we know little about the driver(s) of regime switches. Our estimates based on a panel smooth threshold regression model quantify and explain them: 1) investors have penalized a deterioration of fundamentals more strongly from 2010 to 2012; 2) the higher the bank credit risk, measured with the premium on credit derivatives, the higher the extra premium on fundamentals; 3) after ECB President Draghi's speech in July 2012, it took one year to restore the non-crisis regime and suppress the extra premium.

International audienceWe investigate the presence of self-fulfilling dynamics during the European sovereign crisis in the light of a theoretical model that we bring to the data. Our empirical framework allows us to empirically test the presence of self-fulfilling dynamics and to identify what may have driven the market sentiment during this crisis. To do so we estimate the probability of default of five European “peripheral” countries during January 2006 to September 2011 with a panel smooth threshold regression. Our estimation results suggest that (1) both the fundamentals and “animal spirit” ignited the European sovereign crisis; (2) we isolate the risk indicator through which investors’ belief coordinate