No abstract

Stochastic programming with step decision rules, SPSDR, is an attempt to overcome the curse of computational complexity of multistage stochastic programming problems. SPSDR combines several techniques. The first idea is to work with independent experts. Each expert is confronted with a sample of scenarios drawn at random from the original stochastic process. The second idea is to have each expert work with step decision rules. The optimal decision rules of the individual experts are then averaged to form the final decision rule. The final solution is tested on a very large sample of scenarios. SPSDR is then tested against two alternative methods: regular stochastic programming on a problem with 3 stages and 2 recourses; robust optimization with affinely adjustable recourses on a 12-stage model. The performance of the new method turns out to be competitive on those examples, while it permits a tighter control on computational complexity than standard stochastic programming.

This paper presents an open source tool that automatically generates the so-called deterministic equivalent in stochastic programming. The tool is based on the algebraic modeling language ampl. The user is only required to provide the deterministic version of the stochastic problem and the information on the stochastic process, either as scenarios or as a transitions-based event tree

Summary In this paper we present the regional techno-economic model ETEM, designed for the analysis of regional energy/environment systems and we show how it can be used to explore the possible penetration of new technologies in a region corresponding roughly to the canton of Geneva. We investigate three scenarios with different constraints on CO2 emissions and electricity imports and show the essential role played by new technologies, linked through a smart grid, in the effort toward a sustainable energy system. We strengthen our conclusion with a stochastic approach dealing with uncertainty in future electricity prices and electric car technology penetration.

This article presents an analysis of the behaviour of countries defining their climate policies in an uncertain context. The analysis is made using the S-CWS model, a stochastic version of an integrated assessment growth model. The model includes a stochastic definition of the climate sensitivity parameter. We show that the impact of uncertainty on policy design critically depends on the shape of the damage function. We also examine the benefits of cooperation in the context of uncertainty: We highlight the existence of an additional benefit of cooperation, namely risk reduction.