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Summary1. The effects of agricultural intensification on biodiversity in arable systems of western Europe have received a great deal of attention. However, the recent transformation of grassland systems has been just as profound. 2. In Britain, the management of grassland has changed substantially in the second half of the 20th century. A high proportion of lowland grassland is managed intensively. The major changes include a doubling in the use of inorganic nitrogen, a switch from hay to silage, and increased stocking densities, particularly of sheep. Structurally diverse and species-rich swards have been largely replaced by relatively dense, fast-growing and structurally uniform swards, dominated by competitive species. 3. Most of these changes have reduced the suitability of grassland as feeding and breeding habitat for birds. 4. The most important direct effects have been deterioration of the sward as nesting and wintering habitat, and loss of seed resources as food. Short uniform swards afford poor shelter and camouflage from predators, whereas increased mowing intensities and trampling by stock will destroy nests and young. Increased frequency of sward defoliation reduces flowering and seed set, and hence food availability for seed-eating birds. 5. The indirect effects of intensification of management on birds relate largely to changes in the abundance and availability of invertebrate prey. The effects of management vary with its type, timing and intensity, and with invertebrate ecology and phenology, but, in general, the abundance and diversity of invertebrates declines with reductions in sward diversity and structural complexity. 6. Low input livestock systems are likely to be central to any future management strategies designed to maintain and restore the ecological diversity of semi-natural lowland grasslands. Low additions of organic fertilizer benefit some invertebrate prey species, and moderate levels of grazing encourage sward heterogeneity. 7. There is now a need to improve understanding of how grassland management affects bird population dynamics. Particularly important areas of research include: (i) the interaction between changes in food abundance, due to changes in fertilizer inputs, and food accessibility, due to changes in sward structure; (ii) the interaction between predation rates and management-related changes in habitat; and (iii) the impact of alternative anti-helminithic treatments for livestock on invertebrates and birds.

There is compelling evidence that Afro-Palaearctic (A-P) migrant bird populations have declined in Europe in recent decades, often to a greater degree than resident or shortdistance migrants. There appear to have been two phases of decline. The first in the 1960s-1970s, and in some cases into the early 1980s, largely affected species wintering predominantly in the arid Sahelian zone, and the second since the 1980s has mostly affected species wintering in the humid tropics and Guinea forest zone. Potential drivers of these declines are diverse and are spread across and interact within the migratory cycle. Our knowledge of declining species is generally better for the breeding than the non-breeding parts of their life cycles, but there are significant gaps in both for many species. On the breeding grounds, degradation of breeding habitats is the factor affecting the demography of the largest number of species, particularly within agricultural systems and woodland and forests. In the non-breeding areas, the interacting factors of anthropogenic habitat degradation and climatic conditions, particularly drought in the Sahel zone, appear to be the most important factors. Based on our synthesis of existing information, we suggest four priorities for further research: (1) use of new and emerging tracking technologies to identify migratory pathways and strategies, understand migratory connectivity and enable field research to be targeted more effectively; (2) undertake detailed field studies in sub-Saharan Africa and at staging sites, where we understand little about distribution patterns, habitat use and foraging ecology; (3) make better use of the wealth of data from the European breeding grounds to explore spatial and temporal patterns in demographic parameters and relate these to migratory pathways and large-scale patterns of habitat change and climatic factors; and (4) make better use of remote sensing to improve our understanding of how and where land cover is changing across these extensive areas and how this impacts A-P migrants. This research needs to inform and underpin a flyway approach to conservation, evaluating a suite of drivers across the migratory cycle and combining this with an understanding of land management practices that integrate the needs of birds and people in these areas.

Sustainable development requires the reconciliation of demands for biodiversity conservation and increased agricultural production. Assessing the impact of novel farming practices on biodiversity and ecosystem services is fundamental to this process. Using farmland birds as a model system, we present a generic risk assessment framework that accurately predicts each species' current conservation status and population growth rate associated with past changes in agriculture. We demonstrate its value by assessing the potential impact on biodiversity of two controversial land uses, genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops and agri-environment schemes. This framework can be used to guide policy and land management decisions and to assess progress toward sustainability targets.