BackgroundOlder patients are at an increased risk of developing adverse drug reactions (ADR). Of particular concern are the oldest old, which constitute an increasingly growing population. Having a validated clinical tool to identify those older patients at risk of developing an ADR during hospital stay would enable healthcare staff to put measures in place to reduce the risk of such an event developing. The current study aimed to (1) develop and (2) validate an ADR risk prediction model.MethodsWe used a combination of univariate analysis and multivariate binary logistic regression to identify clinical risk factors for developing an ADR in a population of older people from a UK teaching hospital. The final ADR risk model was then validated in a European population (European dataset).ResultsSix-hundred-ninety patients (median age 85 years) were enrolled in the development stage of the study. Ninety-five reports of ADR were confirmed by independent review in these patients. Five clinical variables were identified through multivariate analysis and included in our final model; each variable was attributed a score of 1. Internal validation produced an AUROC of 0.74, a sensitivity of 80%, and specificity of 55%. During the external validation stage the AUROC was 0.73, with sensitivity and specificity values of 84% and 43% respectively.ConclusionsWe have developed and successfully validated a simple model to use ADR risk score in a population of patients with a median age of 85, i.e. the oldest old. The model is based on 5 clinical variables (≥8 drugs, hyperlipidaemia, raised white cell count, use of anti-diabetic agents, length of stay ≥12 days), some of which have not been previously reported.
HIV appears to be an independent risk factor for frailty, with frailty occurring in individuals with HIV at rates comparable with older individuals without HIV. Heterogeneity in study populations and frailty assessment measures hamper accurate description of the problem. Future longitudinal work with standardized methodology is needed to describe prevalence accurately and confirm predictors.
Backgroundunderstanding how best to provide palliative care for frail older people with non-malignant conditions is an international priority. We aimed to develop a community-based episodic model of short-term integrated palliative and supportive care (SIPS) based on the views of service users and other key stakeholders in the United Kingdom.Methodtransparent expert consultations with health professionals, voluntary sector and carer representatives including a consensus survey; and focus groups with older people and carers were used to generate recommendations for the SIPS model. Discussions focused on three key components of the model: potential benefit of SIPS, timing of delivery and processes of integrated working between specialist palliative care and generalist practitioners. Content and descriptive analysis was employed and findings were integrated across the data sources.Findingswe conducted two expert consultations (n = 63), a consensus survey (n = 42) and three focus groups (n = 17). Potential benefits of SIPS included holistic assessment, opportunity for end of life discussion, symptom management and carer reassurance. Older people and carers advocated early access to SIPS, while other stakeholders proposed delivery based on complex symptom burden. A priority for integrated working was the assignment of a key worker to co-ordinate care, but the assignment criteria remain uncertain.Interpretationkey stakeholders agree that a model of SIPS for frail older people with non-malignant conditions has potential benefits within community settings, but differ in opinion on the optimal timing and indications for this service. Our findings highlight the importance of consulting all key stakeholders in model development prior to feasibility evaluation.
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