Capabilities to directly assimilate radar data are implemented within the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) and the gain‐form LETKF (LGETKF) algorithms of the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) system. The capabilities are evaluated for the analysis and forecast of a severe convection case of 20 May 2019 in the Southern Great Plains using the limited area model version of the FV3 dynamical core (FV3‐LAM) from a recent release for Short‐Range Weather Application (SRW App). The LETKF and LGETKF implementations are shown to produce analyses and short‐range forecasts comparable to those using the ensemble square‐root Kalman Filter (EnSRF) within the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) framework used by current NCEP operational models. In addition, LGETKF retaining only 60% variances for model‐space vertical localization performs similarly to LGETKF retaining 99% of variance and LETKF using observation error‐based vertical localization. JEDI LETKF shows better parallel scalability than LGETKF and GSI EnSRF.

To help inform physics configuration decisions and help design and optimize a multi-physics Rapid Refresh Forecasting System (RRFS) ensemble to be used operationally by the National Weather Service, five FV3-LAM-based convection allowing forecasts were run on cases between October 2020 and March 2021. These forecasts used ∼3 km grid spacing on a CONUS domain with physics configurations including Thompson, NSSL, and Ferrier-Aligo microphysics schemes, Noah, RUC, and NoahMP land surface models and MYNN-EDMF, K-EDMF, and TKE-EDMF PBL schemes. All forecasts were initialized from the 0000 UTC GFS analysis and run for 84 hours. Also, a subset of eight cases were run with 15 combinations of physics options, also including the Morrison-Gettelman microphysics and Shin-Hong PBL schemes, to help attribute behaviors to individual schemes and isolate the main contributors of forecast errors. Evaluations of both sets of forecasts find that the CONUS-wide 24-hr precipitation >1 mm is positively biased across all five forecasts. NSSL microphysics displays a low bias in QPF along the gulf coast. Analyses show that it produces smaller rain drops prone to evaporation. Additionally, TKE-EDMF PBL in combination with Thompson microphysics displays a positive bias in precipitation over the Great Lakes and in the ocean near Florida due to higher latent heat fluxes calculated over water. Furthermore, the K-EDMF PBL scheme produces temperature errors which result in a negative bias in snowfall over the southern Mountain West. Finally, recommendations for which physics schemes to use in future suites and the RRFS ensemble are discussed.

During the winter of 2020/21 an ensemble of FV3-LAM forecasts was produced over the contiguous United States for the Winter Weather Experiment using five physics suites. These forecasts are evaluated with the goal of optimizing physics parameterizations within the future operational Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) in the Unified Forecast System (UFS) realm and for selecting suitable physics suites for a multiphysics RRFS ensemble. The five physics suites have different combinations of land surface models (LSMs), planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, and surface layer schemes, chosen from those used in current and possible future operational systems and likely to be supported in the operational UFS. Full-season evaluation reveals a persistent near-surface cold bias in the U.S. Northeast from one suite and a nighttime warm bias in the southern Great Plains in another suite, while other suites have smaller biases. A representative case is chosen to diagnose the cause for each of these biases using sensitivity simulations with different physics combinations or modified parameters and verified with additional mesonet observations. The cold bias in the Northeast is attributed to aspects of the Noah-MP LSM over snow cover, where Noah-MP simulates lower soil water content, and thus lower thermal conductivity than other LSMs, leading to less upward ground heat flux during nighttime and consequently lower surface temperature. The nighttime warm bias found in the southern Great Plains is attributed to overestimation of vertical mixing in the K-profile-based eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (K-EDMF) PBL scheme and insufficient land–atmospheric coupling from the GFS surface layer scheme over short vegetation. A few key parameters driving these systematic biases are identified.

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