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Abstract:The Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) is a world-wide accepted lastresort means of reducing the probability and frequency of mid-air collisions between aircraft. Unfortunately, it is widely known that in congested airspace, the use of the TCAS may actually lead to induced collisions. Therefore, further research regarding TCAS logic is required. In this paper, an encounter model is formalised to identify all of the potential collision scenarios that can be induced by a resolution advisory that was generated previously by the TCAS without considering the downstream consequences in the surrounding traffic. The existing encounter models focus on checking and validating the potential collisions between trajectories of a specific scenario. In contrast, the innovative approach described in this paper concentrates on quantitative analysis of the different induced collision scenarios that could be reached for a given initial trajectory and a rough specification of the surrounding traffic. This approach provides valuable information at the operational level. Furthermore, the proposed encounter model can be used as a test-bed to evaluate future TCAS logic changes to mitigate potential induced collisions in hot spot volumes. In addition, the encounter model is described by means of the coloured Petri net (CPN) formalism. The resulting state space provides a deep understanding of the cause-and-effect relationship that each TCAS action proposed to avoid an actual collision with a potential new collision in the surrounding traffic. Quantitative simulation results are conducted to validate the proposed encounter model, and the resulting collision scenarios are summarised as valuable information for future air traffic management (ATM) systems.

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Current Air Traffic Management research programs (i.e. Single European Sky ATM (air traffic management) Research (SESAR), next generation air transportation system (NextGen)), try to overcome airside capacity shortages while improving cost-efficient operations and safety. An increment in the airspace traffic density can lead to congested traffic scenarios for which it becomes necessary to develop new safety procedures that address multithread threats. This paper considers some of the difficulties in establishing validation of the airborne collision avoidance system (ACAS), which constitutes the last-resort for reducing the risk of near mid-air collision between aircraft in a multithread scenario. A causal model that is specified in Colored Petri Net (CPN) formalism is presented as a key approach to analyze the state space of a congested traffic scenario in which the events that could transform a conflict into a collision are identified, providing a challenging tool not only for validation but also for the implementation of a new ACAS logic. The InCAS EuroControl simulator has been used to illustrate the importance of cause-effect analysis for the relationships between various encounters that arise in a multithread scenario, in which TCAS II v. 7.1 fails to avoid a collision when two Resolution Advisories are issued without consideration of the downstream effects.