Background:The current study aimed to establish a novel nomogram to predict the overall survival of individual Chinese patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (GEP-NENs). Furthermore, this study sought to externally validate this nomogram using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.Methods:The records of 1183 patients with GEP-NENs treated at five high-capacity institutions in China between 2005 and 2015 were retrospectively analysed. In addition, 10 236 GEP-NEN cases from the SEER database were included as an external validation set.Results:A multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazards (PHs) regression was performed, and a nomogram was constructed. Discrimination, calibration, and external validation were performed using the SEER data set. The multivariate Cox model indicated that age, tumour size, differentiation, lymph node metastases, and distant metastases were independent covariates associated with survival. With respect to the training set, the nomogram exhibited better discrimination power than TNM classification (Harrell’s concordance index (C-index): 0.837 vs 0.784, P=0.006). Discrimination was also excellent and superior to that of TNM classification for the SEER-based validation set (C-index: 0.808 vs 0.717, P<0.001). The calibrated nomogram predicted a survival rate that closely corresponded to the actual survival rate.Conclusions:We developed a nomogram that predicted the 3- and 5-year overall survival rates of patients with GEP-NENs. Validation revealed excellent discrimination and calibration for this nomogram, suggesting that it exhibits satisfactory clinical utility that might improve individualised predictions of survival risks and lead to the creation of additional clinical therapies.

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Background:Preoperative chemoradiotherapy has become the current standard regimen for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). However, the additional benefit of oxaliplatin to preoperative chemotherapy was still controversial. On one hand, oxaliplatin may improve the tumor response rate of even prolong the survival time. On the other hand, it can bring a series of adverse effects. Opinions vary from studies to studies. We aim to perform a meta-analysis to evaluate the efficacy, safety, and long-term survival of oxaliplatin in preoperative chemoradiotherapy for LARC.Method:To identify clinical trials fusing oxaliplatin in preoperative chemoradiotherapy for LARC published until December 2015, we searched PubMed, the Cochrane Library, and the Springer Link databases by combining various key words. We also search for relevant ASCO conferences. Data were extracted from every study to perform a meta-analysis using STATA 12.0 software.Result:Eleven articles or ASCO abstracts from 8 studies with a total of 5597 patients were included. Adding oxaliplatin to preoperative chemoradiotherapy can significantly improve the ypCR rate [risk ratio (RR) = 1.208, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.070–1.364, P = 0.002, I2 = 14.5%], and decrease the preoperative metastasis (RR = 0.494, 95% CI: 0.256–0.954, P = 0.036, I2 = 53.9%) and local recurrence rate (RR = 0.761, 95% CI: 0.616–0.941, P = 0.012, I2 = 26.1%). What's more, oxaliplatin can prolong the disease-free survival (DFS) [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.867, 95% CI: 0.741–0.992, P = 0.000, I2 = 16.3%]. However, oxaliplatin can increase the chemoradiotherapy-related toxicities (RR = 1.858, 95% CI 1.427–2.419, P = 0.000, I2 = 84.7%). There was no significant difference between the groups with and without oxaliplatin in operation rate, R0 resection rate, sphincter preservation rate, permanent stoma rate, postoperative complication, mortality, and overall survival.Conclusion:Preoperative chemoradiotherapy with oxaliplatin bring both advantage and disadvantage to LARC. Whether to use oxaliplatin should be decided by patient's general condition and tolerance. Although oxaliplatin can prolong the DFS, survival benefit should be proved by further data.