Cultivation of woody oil plants in environmentally suitable habitats is a successful ecological solution for oil development and forest management. In this study, we predicted the influences of future climate change on the potentially suitable climatic distribution of an important woody oil plant species (walnut; Juglans regia L.) in China based on given climate change scenarios and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The MaxEnt model showed that the minimum temperature of the coldest month and annual precipitation were the most important determinant variables limiting the geographical distribution of J. regia. We have found that the current suitable environmental habitat of J. regia is mainly distributed in central and southwestern China. Results of the MaxEnt model showed that global warming in the coming half-century may lead to an increase in the area size of environmentally suitable habitats for J. regia in China, indicating more lands available for artificial cultivation and oil production. However, those suitable habitat gains may be practically inaccessible due to over-harvest and urban development, and effective management strategies are urgently needed to establish those forests. This research will provide theoretical suggestions for the protection, cultivation management, and sustainable utilization of J. regia resources to face the challenge of global climate change.

How climate change affects the plants on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) has become a hot research topic in recent years. It was widely recognized that Larix. are sensitive to climate change, while the corresponding research of Larix. on the QTP has been rare. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, we predicted the potential distribution patterns of Larix potaninii Batalin, Larix griffithii and Larix speciosa on the QTP in this study under different future climate scenarios. The results demonstrated that the area of suitable habitat for Larix potaninii Batalin (Larix griffithii) presented a loss (gain) trend, while that for Larix speciosa remained unchanged on the whole. The centroids of their suitable habits all migrated to the high-altitude and high-latitude areas, suggesting the three species may take the same survival strategy in response to climate change. Annual Precipitation was the most significant environmental factor influencing the distribution pattern of Larix potaninii Batalin, while Temperature Annual Range was the most significant for Larix griffithii and Larix speciosa. The overlapping potential suitable area for the three Larix species was the maximum under the 2041–2060 SSP126 future climate scenarios and decreased with the increasing emission concentration, suggesting that the niches of these species may step towards separation. This study suggested the survival strategies of the Larix species in response to climate change and the findings may provide a reliable basis for conserving the endangered Larix species under different future climate scenarios.

Predicting the suitable habitat of plants under climate change has become a trending research topic in recent years. Juniperus tibetica Komarov (Cupressales: Cupressaceae) is a unique and vulnerable species on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) and the highest timberline in the Northern Hemisphere. The prediction of the suitable habitat of J. tibetica will be beneficial for understanding the ecosystem of the QTP. In the present study, variations in the distribution pattern of the suitable habitats (DPSH) of J. tibetica on the QTP were investigated by MaxEnt and GIS spatial analysis based on 288 distribution records and 8 environmental factors. The environmentally abnormal areas and environmental factors determining the DPSH along with climate change were analyzed, and the most suitable climate models were evaluated. The results show that the suitable habitat of J. tibetica will migrate to higher-elevation and -latitude areas in the future. Precipitation was the most important factor affecting current suitable habitats and limiting future ones, followed by temperature. By comparing the integrality of suitable habitat under different climate models, it was suggested that the HadGEM2-ES (RCP2.6) and BCC-CSM1.1 (RCP8.5) climate models were the best for predicting the DPSH of J. tibetica. This study revealed the response of the suitable habitat of J. tibetica relative to climate change at a large scale and provides a theoretical basis for the scientific management and conservation of J. tibetica resources on the QTP.

Climate change has a significant impact on species distribution, especially for the relict plants. Euptelea pleiosperma is a type of tertiary relict plant. This plant shows a decreasing trend in population size, and it is on the edge of extinction given the background of climate change. Understanding the change in suitable habitats of E. pleiosperma will provide significant academic value for investigating species conservation and sustainable development. According to the 236 distribution records of E. pleiosperma in China, and 11 environmental factors, the optimal model was selected from MaxEnt, BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN models, aiming to estimate the future potential suitable habitats and exploring the major environmental factors influencing the distribution of E. pleiosperma. By comparison, the BIOCLIM model was the optimal for estimation, since it achieved the highest precision and the lowest standard error. Our results demonstrated that temperature was the most important factor affecting the suitable habitats of E. pleiosperma, followed by precipitation and altitude. Under the medium- and high-emission scenarios, the future suitable habitats of E. pleiosperma will migrate northward to the high-latitude areas, whereas those under the low-emission scenario will migrate southward to the low-latitude areas. During 2041–2060, the suitable habitat areas will present a positive trend, while those during 2081–2100 will exhibit a negative trend to varying degrees. Consistent with the above results, it is advisable to establish natural reserves and seed resource banks of E. pleiosperma in the current high suitability areas, as well as to provide artificial assistance to guide its migration to the high suitability areas under the future climate scenarios. The findings in this research not only reveal the response of suitable habitats of E. pleiosperma to climate change but also lay a reliable foundation for its population resource conservation and sustainable development.