Built upon education ideologies of the previous century, development of Serbian industry is not able to meet global demands of the modern, 21st century market. Innovative ongoing processes in technology and all industrial branches are global and ever more rapid, and they are circumventing the SEE region. The economic structure of Serbian industry at the beginning of transition was two decades old. At the beginning of 2009, after eight transition years, a short economic transition summary is as follows: the trailing caused by the events of the 1990s is very hard to cope with and we are only half through with this task; on the other hand, we are lagging behind EU-15 and EU-10 more and more. Apart from the analysis of structural non-adjustment of the industrial system and its impact on the macroeconomic balance, the paper underlines a significant role of the state in the formulation of industrial policy

The first generation of reforms in Serbia, especially in 2001À2002, was carried out "by the book" but the initial successful results blurred and concealed numerous problems that, especially in 2003, were becoming more evident and, finally, caused a delay in, and the blockade of, the further reform processes. It turned out that the political élite failed to reach a consensus on the second generation of reforms which, above all, refers to the rounding-off and functioning of the institutions of a market economy and the rule of law in full. After the October 2000 changes, relations between the FRY/SM and the European Union have altered dramatically. Joining the EU became strategic priority of our foreign policy, as well as reintegration of the SM in the international community. Nevertheless, these processes have their strengths and weaknesses, potential opportunities and threats, which are summarized in this paper.

Growth and structural change are strongly interrelated. Once we abandon the world of homothetic preferences, neutral productivity growth with no systematic sectoral effect, perfect mobility, and markets that adjust instantaneously, structural change emerges as a central feature of the process of development (Simon Kuznets, 1957)

SažetakRecesija nije podjednakom žestinom pogodila sve regione u Srbiji, neki regioni su bili otporniji od drugih. Razlike u regionalnoj otpornosti su se, pored tržišta rada, najviše odrazile u regionalnim granama prerađivačke industrije. Ekonomska kriza najviše je pogodila razvijene grane prerađivačke industrije. Pored toga, ključni ekonomski parametri (zaposlenost i novostvorena vrednost) su u preduzetničkom sektoru pali za 20%.Dubinsko istraživanje regionalne otpornosti u Srbiji usmereno je u dva pravca: testiranje regionalne industrijske otpornosti pre i posle globalne recesije i identifikovanje ključnih regionalnih industrijskih grana u kontekstu regionalne specijalizacije.U radu je promovisan i nov metodološki pristup baziran na dinamičkoj strukturnoj analizi prerađivačke industrije Srbije. Istraživački doprinos autora je i afirmacija novih analitičkih instrumenata (dva nova kompozitna indeksa: IRIS i Regionalni koeficijent uspešnosti privatizacije).Ekonomske poruke u radu usmerene su u više pravaca: regionalna otpornost primarno zavisi od sektorske povezanosti i endogenih regionalnih resursa, regionalnu otpornost povećavaju faktori koje se odnose na tehnologiju, znanje i inovativni kapacitet, kao i da se regionalna otpornost povećava specijalizacijom tradicionalnih grana. U narednom periodu ključna će biti privredna transformacija ka preduzetničkoj ekonomiji i dinamičkim strukturama preduzeća.Ključne reči: regionalna otpornost, regionalni efekti privatizacije, strukturna analiza, regionalna konkurentnost, preduzetništvo, specijalizacija prerađivačke industrije AbstractThe recession did not affect all the regions with the same intensity, as some were more resilient than others. The differences in regional resilience, besides the labor market, have mostly reflected on regional branches of the manufacturing industry. Developed industrial branches within the manufacturing industry have been affected the most. In addition, key economic parameters (employment and value added) in the entrepreneurial sector decreased by 20%.The in-depth research in the study is aiming in two directions: the testing of regional industrial resilience before and after the global recession and identifying of the key regional industrial branches in the context of regional specialization.This study promotes a new methodological approach based on dynamic structural analysis of the manufacturing industry of Serbia. In addition, the research contribution of authors also encompasses the affirmation of new analytical instruments (two new composite indexes: RISI and Regional coefficient of successfulness of privatization).The economic messages in this study are being targeted in several directions: regional resistance depends primarily on sectoral connections and endogenous regional resources, factors that increase regional resilience include technology, knowledge and innovation, and regional resistance is increased through the specialization of traditional branches of manufacturing industry. The economic transformation toward the entreprene...

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