SummaryBackgroundImproving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.MethodsWe estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography–year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FindingsGlobally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4–61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5–72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7–17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5–70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6–5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8–18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-com...

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IntroductionAchieving the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS 90-90-90 targets requires models of HIV care that expand antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage without overburdening health systems. Point-of-care (POC) viral load (VL) testing has the potential to efficiently monitor ART treatment, while enrolled nurses may be able to provide safe and cost-effective chronic care for stable patients with HIV. This study aims to demonstrate whether POC VL testing combined with task shifting to enrolled nurses is non-inferior and cost-effective compared with laboratory-based VL monitoring and standard HIV care.Methods and analysisThe STREAM (Simplifying HIV TREAtment and Monitoring) study is an open-label, non-inferiority, randomised controlled implementation trial. HIV-positive adults, clinically stable at 6 months after ART initiation, will be recruited in a large urban clinic in South Africa. Approximately 396 participants will be randomised 1:1 to receive POC HIV VL monitoring and potential task shifting to enrolled nurses, versus laboratory VL monitoring and standard South African HIV care. Initial clinic follow-up will be 2-monthly in both arms, with VL testing at enrolment, 6 months and 12 months. At 6 months (1 year after ART initiation), stable participants in both arms will qualify for a differentiated care model involving decentralised ART pickup at community-based pharmacies. The primary outcome is retention in care and virological suppression at 12 months from enrolment. Secondary outcomes include time to appropriate entry into the decentralised ART delivery programme, costs per virologically suppressed patient and cost-effectiveness of the intervention compared with standard care. Findings will inform the scale up of VL testing and differentiated care in HIV-endemic resource-limited settings.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval has been granted by the University of KwaZulu-Natal Biomedical Research Ethics Committee (BFC296/16) and University of Washington Institutional Review Board (STUDY00001466). Results will be presented at international conferences and published in academic peer-reviewed journals.Trial registration NCT03066128; Pre-results.

Background Direct measurement of tenofovir (TFV) in urine could be an objective measure to monitor adherence to preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) or TFV-based antiretroviral therapy (ART). Methods We conducted a 3-arm randomized, pharmacokinetic study of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) 300 mg/emtricitabine (FTC) 200 mg among adults living with human immunodeficiency virus. Participants were randomized to receive controlled TDF/FTC dosing as (1) “perfect” adherence (daily); (2) “moderate” adherence (4 doses/week); or (3) “low” adherence (2 doses/week). We obtained trough spot urine and plasma samples during a 6-week directly observed therapy period and a 4-week washout period. TFV concentrations were compared between adherence arms using 1-way analysis of variance. Results Among 28 participants, the median age was 33 years and 16 (57%) were male. Correlation between TFV plasma and urine concentrations was strong (ρ = 0.78; P < .0001). Median (interquartile range) steady-state trough TFV concentrations (ng/mL) for perfect, moderate, and low TDF adherence were 41 (26–52), 16 (14–19), and 4 (3–5) in plasma; and 6480 (3940–14 300), 3405 (2210–5020), and 448 (228–675) in urine. Trough TFV concentrations at steady state were significantly different between the 3 adherence arms for plasma (P < .0001) and urine (P = .0002). Following drug cessation, TFV concentrations persisted longer in urine than plasma samples. Washout urine TFV concentrations and time to undetectable concentrations did not differ between the 3 randomized adherence groups. Conclusions Urine TFV concentrations can inform interpretation of novel point-of-care urine-based TFV assays to assess recent TDF adherence. Clinical Trials Registration NCT0301260.

BackgroundTenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is key component of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV, but existing tools to monitor drug adherence are often inaccurate. Detection of tenofovir (TFV) in accessible biological samples, such as fingerprick blood, urine or oral fluid samples could be a novel objective measure of recent TDF adherence. To measure TFV concentrations associated with different levels of TDF adherence, we designed a randomized clinical trial to assess the blood, urine and oral fluid concentrations of TFV in adults with perfect, moderate and low drug adherence.Methods/designA randomized, open-label, clinical pharmacokinetic study of tenofovir in healthy adult volunteers without HIV or Hepatitis B infection in Thailand. Consenting, eligible participants are randomized (1:1:1) among three groups to receive a controlled number of TDF (300 mg) doses in a combination pill with emtricitabine (FTC, 200 mg) for six weeks. Participants in Group 1 receive a single TDF/FTC tablet once daily (Perfect adherence); Group 2 receive a single TDF/FTC tablet 4 times/week (Moderate adherence); and Group 3 receive a single TDF/FTC tablet 2 times/week (Low adherence). Blood, plasma, urine and oral fluid samples are collected for drug measurement during three study phases: (i) initial 6-week treatment phase; (ii) intensive 24-h blood sampling phase after 6 weeks; (iii) 4-week washout phase. Thirty adults with evaluable pharmacokinetic samples (10 per group) will be enrolled [based on ensuring 25% precision in pharmacokinetic parameter estimates]. Pre-dose drug concentrations during the treatment phase will be descriptive and comparisons between groups performed using a Kruskal-Wallis test. A non-compartmental pharmacokinetic analysis will be performed on the intensive sampling data at Week 7 and the time course of TFV washout in the difference biological matrices will be reported based on the detected concentrations following drug cessation.DiscussionThe results of this randomized trial will define the target concentration thresholds of TFV in blood, urine and oral fluid that can distinguish between different levels of TDF adherence. Such adherence ‘benchmarks’ can be applied to real-time drug testing and novel point-of-care tests to identify individuals with poor PrEP or ART adherence.Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT03012607.