Large-scale presence-absence monitoring programs have great promise for many conservation applications. Their value can be limited by potential incorrect inferences owing to observational errors, especially when data are collected by the public. To combat this, previous analytical methods have focused on addressing non-detection from public survey data. Misclassification errors have received less attention but are also likely to be a common component of public surveys, as well as many other data types. We derive estimators for dynamic occupancy parameters (extinction and colonization), focusing on the case where certainty can be assumed for a subset of detections. We demonstrate how to simultaneously account for non-detection (false negatives) and misclassification (false positives) when estimating occurrence parameters for gray wolves in northern Montana from 2007–2010. Our primary data source for the analysis was observations by deer and elk hunters, reported as part of the state’s annual hunter survey. This data was supplemented with data from known locations of radio-collared wolves. We found that occupancy was relatively stable during the years of the study and wolves were largely restricted to the highest quality habitats in the study area. Transitions in the occupancy status of sites were rare, as occupied sites almost always remained occupied and unoccupied sites remained unoccupied. Failing to account for false positives led to over estimation of both the area inhabited by wolves and the frequency of turnover. The ability to properly account for both false negatives and false positives is an important step to improve inferences for conservation from large-scale public surveys. The approach we propose will improve our understanding of the status of wolf populations and is relevant to many other data types where false positives are a component of observations.

Summary1. Well-informed management of harvested species requires understanding how changing ecological conditions affect demography and population dynamics, information that is lacking for many species. We have limited understanding of the relative influence of carnivores, harvest, weather and forage availability on elk Cervus elaphus demography, despite the ecological and economic importance of this species. We assessed adult female survival, a key vital rate for population dynamics, from 2746 radio-collared elk in 45 populations across western North America that experience wide variation in carnivore assemblage, harvest, weather and habitat conditions. 2. Proportional hazard analysis revealed that 'baseline' (i.e. not related to human factors) mortality was higher with very high winter precipitation, particularly in populations sympatric with wolves Canis lupus. Mortality may increase via nutritional stress and heightened vulnerability to predation in snowy winters. Baseline mortality was unrelated to puma Puma concolor presence, forest cover or summer forage productivity. 3. Cause-specific mortality analyses showed that wolves and all carnivore species combined had additive effects on baseline elk mortality, but only reduced survival by <2%. When human factors were included, 'total' adult mortality was solely related to harvest; the influence of native carnivores was compensatory. Annual total mortality rates were lowest in populations sympatric with both pumas and wolves because managers reduced female harvest in areas with abundant or diverse carnivores. ‡Present address: Natural Resources Canada, 506 Burnside Road W, Victoria, BC V8Z 1M5, Canada *Correspondence author. E-mail: jedediah.brodie@gmail.com †Authorship alphabetical after B. Johnson.© 2013 This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. 2013, 50, 295-305 doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.12044 4. Mortality from native carnivores peaked in late winter and early spring, while harvest-induced mortality peaked in autumn. The strong peak in harvest-induced mortality during the autumn hunting season decreased as the number of native carnivore species increased. 5. Synthesis and applications. Elevated baseline adult female elk mortality from wolves in years with high winter precipitation could affect elk abundance as winters across the western US become drier and wolves recolonize portions of the region. In the absence of human harvest, wolves had additive, although limited, effects on mortality. However, human harvest, and its apparent use by managers to offset predation, primarily controls overall variation in adult female mortality. Altering harvest quotas is thus a strong tool for offsetting impacts of carnivore recolonization and shifting weather patterns on elk across western North America. Journal of Applied Ecology

Wolf (Canis lupus) predation on livestock and management methods used to mitigate conflicts are highly controversial and scrutinized especially where wolf populations are recovering. Wolves are commonly removed from a local area in attempts to reduce further depredations, but the effectiveness of such management actions is poorly understood. We compared the effects of 3 management responses to livestock depredation by wolf packs in Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming: no removal, partial pack removal, and full pack removal. We examined the effectiveness of each management response in reducing further depredations using a conditional recurrent event model. From 1989 to 2008, we documented 967 depredations by 156 packs: 228 on sheep and 739 on cattle and other stock. Median time between recurrent depredations was 19 days following no removal (n ¼ 593), 64 days following partial pack removal (n ¼ 326), and 730 days following full pack removal (n ¼ 48; recurring depredations were made by the next pack to occupy the territory). Compared to no removal, full pack removal reduced the occurrence of subsequent depredations by 79% (hazard ratio [HR] ¼ 0.21, P < 0.001) over a span of 1,850 days (5 years), whereas partial pack removal reduced the occurrence of subsequent depredations by 29% (HR ¼ 0.71, P < 0.001) over the same period. Partial pack removal was most effective if conducted within the first 7 days following depredation, after which there was only a marginally significant difference between partial pack removal and no action (HR ¼ 0.86, P ¼ 0.07), and no difference after 14 days (HR ¼ 0.99, P ¼ 0.93). Within partial pack removal, we found no difference in depredation recurrence when a breeding female (HR ¼ 0.64, P ¼ 0.2) or !1-year-old male was removed (HR ¼ 1.0, P ¼ 0.99). The relative effect of all treatments was generally consistent across seasons (spring, summer grazing, and winter) and type of livestock. Ultimately, pack size was the best predictor of a recurrent depredation event; the probability of a depredation event recurring within 5 years increased by 7% for each animal left in the pack after the management response. However, the greater the number of wolves left in a pack, the higher the likelihood the pack met federal criteria to count as a breeding pair the following year toward population recovery goals. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Traditional elk habitat management on public land has focused on providing security habitat for bull elk during the hunting season to provide for both adequate hunter opportunity and bull survival. This paradigm has given less consideration to adult female elk habitat use, patterns of adjacent land ownership, and hunter access. This paradigm also was developed when elk population sizes were much smaller in many areas. In many Rocky Mountain states, the focus of elk population management has recently shifted to reducing or maintaining elk population sizes, necessitating a better understanding of the implications of security habitat management, as well as patterns of adjacent land ownership and hunter access, on adult female elk. We addressed this need by testing the hypotheses that during the hunting season: 1) adult female elk selection for areas prohibiting or limiting hunter access is stronger than elk selection for publicly owned and managed elk security habitat, 2) these effects occur during the archery hunting period and intensify during the rifle hunting period, and 3) the effects of hunter access on selection are consistent among herds that occupy landscapes characterized by a matrix of public and private lands. We used global position system locations collected from 82 females in 2 different Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) elk herds to evaluate effects of hunter access, security habitat as defined by the Hillis paradigm, and other landscape attributes on adult female elk resource selection during the pre‐hunting, archery, rifle, and post‐hunting periods. We found that female elk selection for areas restricting public hunting access was stronger than selection for security habitat in both study areas, and that the density of roads open to motorized use was the strongest predictor of elk distribution. Increases in selection for areas that restricted hunting access occurred during the rifle hunting period, and we did not find consistent evidence these movements were triggered by the archery hunting period. Our results provide evidence that in landscapes characterized by a matrix of public and privately owned lands, traditional concepts of elk security habitat need to be expanded to also include areas that restrict hunter access to plan for elk population management that is regulated through adult female harvest. Future efforts should investigate whether elk use of areas that restrict hunter access are flexible behavioral responses to hunting risk, or if these behaviors are passed from generation to generation such that a learned pattern of private land use becomes the normal movement pattern rather than a short‐term behavioral response. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Understanding the behaviorally mediated indirect effects of predators in ecosystems requires knowledge of predator-prey behavioral interactions. In predator-ungulate-plant systems, empirical research quantifying how predators affect ungulate group sizes and distribution, in the context of other influential variables, is particularly needed. The risk allocation hypothesis proposes that prey behavioral responses to predation risk depend on background frequencies of exposure to risk, and it can be used to make predictions about predator-ungulate-plant interactions. We determined non-predation variables that affect elk (Cervus elaphus) group sizes and distribution on a winter range in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) using logistic and log-linear regression on surveys of 513 1-km2 areas conducted over two years. Employing model selection techniques, we evaluated risk allocation and other a priori hypotheses of elk group size and distributional responses to wolf (Canis lupus) predation risk while accounting for influential non-wolf-predation variables. We found little evidence that wolves affect elk group sizes, which were strongly influenced by habitat type and hunting by humans. Following predictions from the risk allocation hypothesis, wolves likely created a more dynamic elk distribution in areas that they frequently hunted, as elk tended to move following wolf encounters in those areas. This response should dilute elk foraging pressure on plant communities in areas where they are frequently hunted by wolves. We predict that this should decrease the spatial heterogeneity of elk impacts on grasslands in areas that wolves frequently hunt. We also predict that this should decrease browsing pressure on heavily browsed woody plant stands in certain areas, which is supported by recent research in the GYE.