Objectives Accurate and reliable criteria to rapidly estimate the probability of infection with the novel coronavirus-2 that causes the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV-2) and associated disease (COVID-19) remain an urgent unmet need, especially in emergency care. The objective was to derive and validate a clinical prediction score for SARS-CoV-2 infection that uses simple criteria widely available at the point of care. Methods Data came from the registry data from the national REgistry of suspected COVID-19 in EmeRgency care (RECOVER network) comprising 116 hospitals from 25 states in the US. Clinical variables and 30-day outcomes were abstracted from medical records of 19,850 emergency department (ED) patients tested for SARS-CoV-2. The criterion standard for diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 required a positive molecular test from a swabbed sample or positive antibody testing within 30 days. The prediction score was derived from a 50% random sample (n = 9,925) using unadjusted analysis of 107 candidate variables as a screening step, followed by stepwise forward logistic regression on 72 variables. Results Multivariable regression yielded a 13-variable score, which was simplified to a 13-point score: +1 point each for age>50 years, measured temperature>37.5°C, oxygen saturation<95%, Black race, Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, household contact with known or suspected COVID-19, patient reported history of dry cough, anosmia/dysgeusia, myalgias or fever; and -1 point each for White race, no direct contact with infected person, or smoking. In the validation sample (n = 9,975), the probability from logistic regression score produced an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.79–0.81), and this level of accuracy was retained across patients enrolled from the early spring to summer of 2020. In the simplified score, a score of zero produced a sensitivity of 95.6% (94.8–96.3%), specificity of 20.0% (19.0–21.0%), negative likelihood ratio of 0.22 (0.19–0.26). Increasing points on the simplified score predicted higher probability of infection (e.g., >75% probability with +5 or more points). Conclusion Criteria that are available at the point of care can accurately predict the probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection. These criteria could assist with decisions about isolation and testing at high throughput checkpoints.

IntroductionIn the USA, many emergency departments (EDs) have established protocols to treat patients with newly diagnosed deep vein thrombosis (DVT) as outpatients. Similar treatment of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) has been proposed, but no large-scale study has been published to evaluate a comprehensive, integrated protocol that employs monotherapy anticoagulation to treat patients diagnosed with DVT and PE in the ED.Methods and analysisThis protocol describes the implementation of the Monotherapy Anticoagulation To expedite Home treatment of Venous ThromboEmbolism (MATH-VTE) study at 33 hospitals in the USA. The study was designed and executed to meet the requirements for the Standards for Reporting Implementation Studies guideline. The study was funded by investigator-initiated awards from industry, with Indiana University as the sponsor. The study principal investigator and study associates travelled to each site to provide on-site training. The protocol identically screens patients with both DVT or PE to determine low risk of death using either the modified Hestia criteria or physician judgement plus a negative result from the simplified PE severity index. Patients must be discharged from the ED within 24 hours of triage and treated with either apixaban or rivaroxaban. Overall effectiveness is based upon the primary efficacy and safety outcomes of recurrent VTE and bleeding requiring hospitalisation respectively. Target enrolment of 1300 patients was estimated with efficacy success defined as the upper limit of the 95% CI for the 30-day frequency of VTE recurrence below 2.0%. Thirty-three hospitals in 17 states were initiated in 2016–2017.Ethics and disseminationAll sites had Institutional Review Board approval. We anticipate completion of enrolment in June 2020; study data will be available after peer-reviewed publication. MATH-VTE will provide information from a large multicentre sample of US patients about the efficacy and safety of home treatment of VTE with monotherapy anticoagulation.

BACKGROUND: The objective was to test if low-risk emergency department patients with vitamin K antagonist (venous thromboembolism [VTE]; including venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism [PE]) can be safely and effectively treated at home with direct acting oral (monotherapy) anticoagulation in a large-scale, real-world pragmatic effectiveness trial. METHODS: This was a single-arm trial, conducted from 2016 to 2019 in accordance with the Standards for Reporting Implementation Studies guideline in 33 emergency departments in the United States. Participants had newly diagnosed VTE with low risk of death based upon either the modified Hestia criteria, or physician judgment plus the simplified PE severity index score of zero, together with nonhigh bleeding risk were eligible. Patients had to be discharged within 24 hours of triage and treated with either apixaban or rivaroxaban. Effectiveness was defined by the primary efficacy and safety outcomes, image-proven recurrent VTE and bleeding requiring hospitalization >24 hours, respectively, with an upper limit of the 95% CI for the 30-day frequency of VTE recurrence below 2.0% for both outcomes. RESULTS: We enrolled 1421 patients with complete outcomes data, including 903 with venous thrombosis and 518 with PE. The recurrent VTE requiring hospitalization occurred in 14/1421 (1.0% [95% CI, 0.5%–1.7%]), and bleeding requiring hospitalization occurred in 12/1421 (0.8% [0.4%–1.5%). The rate of severe bleeding using International Society for Thrombosis and Haemostasis criteria was 2/1421 (0.1% [0%–0.5%]). No patient died, and serious adverse events occurred in 2.5% of venous thrombosis patients and 2.3% of patients with PE. Medication nonadherence was reported by patients in 8.0% (6.6%–9.5%) and was associated with a risk ratio of 6.0 (2.3–15.2) for VTE recurrence. Among all patients diagnosed with VTE in the emergency department during the period of study, 18% of venous thrombosis patients and 10% of patients with PE were enrolled. CONCLUSIONS: Monotherapy treatment of low-risk patients with venous thrombosis or PE in the emergency department setting produced a low rate of bleeding and VTE recurrence, but may be underused. Patients with venous thrombosis and PE should undergo risk-stratification before home treatment. Improved patient adherence may reduce rate of recurrent VTE. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT03404635

Background Older adults represent a disproportionate share of severe COVID‐19 presentations and fatalities, but we have limited understanding of the differences in presentation by age and the association between less typical emergency department (ED) presentations and clinical outcomes. Methods This retrospective cohort study used the RECOVER Network registry, a research collaboration of 86 EDs in 27 U.S. states. We focused on encounters with a positive nasopharyngeal swab for SARS‐CoV‐2, and described their demographics, clinical presentation, and outcomes. Sequential multivariable logistic regressions examined the strength of association between age cohort and outcomes. Results Of 4536 encounters, median patient age was 55 years, 49% were women, and 34% were non‐Hispanic Black persons. Cough was the most common presenting complaint across age groups (18–64, 65–74, and 75+): 71%, 67%, and 59%, respectively ( p < 0.001). Neurological symptoms, particularly altered mental status, were more common in older adults (2%, 11%, 26%; p < 0.001). Patients 75+ had the greatest odds of ED index visit admission of all age groups (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 6.66; 95% CI 5.23–8.56), 30‐day hospitalization (aOR 7.44; 95% CI 5.63–9.99), and severe COVID‐19 (aOR 4.26; 95% CI 3.45–5.27). Compared to individuals with alternate presentations and adjusting for age, patients with typical symptoms (fever, cough and/or shortness of breath) had similar odds of ED index visit admission (aOR 1.01; 95% CI 0.81–1.24), potentially higher odds of 30‐day hospitalization (aOR 1.23; 95% CI 1.00–1.53), and greater odds of severe COVID‐19 (aOR 1.46; 95% CI 1.12–1.90). Conclusions Older patients with COVID‐19 are more likely to have presentations without the most common symptoms. However, alternate presentations of COVID‐19 in older ED patients are not associated with greater odds of mechanical ventilation and/or death. Our data highlights the importance of a liberal COVID‐19 testing strategy among older ED patients to facilitate accurate diagnoses and timely treatment and prophylaxis.

A 15-day-old male who was born at term presented with non-bilious projectile vomiting. He was nontoxic and his abdomen was benign without masses. Point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) showed hypertrophic pyloric stenosis (HPS). Typical findings include target sign; pyloric muscle thickness greater than three millimeters (mm); channel length greater than 15–18 mm; and lack of gastric emptying. The patient was admitted; consultative ultrasound (US) was negative, but repeated 48 hours later for persistent vomiting. This second US was interpreted as HPS, which was confirmed surgically. Pyloromyotomy was successful. Few reports describe POCUS by general emergency physicians to diagnose HPS. Here, we emphasize the value in repeat US for patients with persistent symptoms.