Summary Based on existing power generation data, an hourly area solar power estimation model using the parallel Elman neural network with solar radiation and system conversion efficiency is proposed. The accuracy and reliability of the assessment were verified using the information/data of solar photovoltaic power stations in various regions and timescales. Using the established appraisal algorithm involving K‐means evaluation and inverse distance weighting, regional forecasting of solar power generation was achieved. The prediction accuracy was also investigated using the actual details of the photovoltaic power stations. The results of the proposed model can assist the electricity dispatcher to not only precisely monitor the trend of solar power generation in different areas, but also coordinate with traditional power plants to meet the load demand more accurately. The proposed method can benefit power dispatching involving a larger scale of intermittent and unstable solar power electricity in the future.

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Based on collected power generation data associated with solar irradiance, PV system conversion efficiency and cell temperature, an hourly solar PV power estimation model by a parallel artificial neural network (ANN) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is proposed. Weight matrices related to different seasons and geographic areas for estimation power generations have been trained by real measured operation data. The parallel PSO algorithm with heuristic global optimization technique assists the ANN training process to get near optimal solutions precisely. The accuracy and reliability of estimation is audited by actual details of photovoltaic power stations in various regions and scales. The results of estimation model can not only assist the electricity dispatcher to explicitly monitor the trend of solar power generation in different areas, but also coordinate with traditional power plants to meet load demand more accurately. The presented model will bring benefits to power dispatching for larger scales of intermittent and unstable solar power generation.