The drastic loss of seminatural grasslands and the decrease in species diversity in Europe during the 20th century are closely linked to social-economic factors. Development in agricultural production drives land-use changes, and thus controls the capacity of landscapes to maintain biodiversity. In this study, we link agricultural production changes to landscape fragmentation and species diversity. Our results show that the termination of grazing on seminatural grassland caused significant changes in landscape structure and a decline in the number of vascular plant species. The decline of grazed grasslands has been driven mainly by farm-level economic efficiency and profitability interests, which have been connected with agricultural policy measures. Since 1995, when Finland joined the European Union, the area of grazed patches in our study area has again increased as a result of a support scheme for the management of seminatural grasslands.

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Purpose -This article seeks to present approaches on the utilisation of expert information in strategic planning practices.Design/methodology/approach -The article emphasises alternative scenario development for the bases of decision making. This is done through an evaluation of Delphi studies and their feasibility for scenario construction. As an application of the information processes, both narrow and broad expert information processes are presented as alternative sources for solutions in public sector strategic planning.Findings -Basically, there are two alternative ways to utilise Delphi studies in strategic planning and decision making: a broad expert information process (BEIP) model; and a narrow expert information process (NEIP) model.Practical implications -As a broad process, an example is presented of the alternative future outcomes and the argumentation around it in the share of genetically modified plant varieties in commercial farming in Finland.Originality/value -This theoretical review contributes to the discussions of the linkages between the use of expert information, the scenario planning and the strategic planning processes.

Abstract. In this article, we assess ecological, economic and social sustainability impacts of four alternative agricultural policy scenarios relevant to the European perspective. The analysed scenarios are: Prolonged Agenda 2000, On-going CAP reform, Integrated rural and environmental policy, and Liberalised Agricultural Trade. An economic agricultural sector model of Finnish agriculture is used in the evaluation of policy impacts up to 2020. Selected indicators representing the three dimensions of sustainability are calculated on the basis of the production variables of the model in each scenario. It is assumed that economic rationality, represented by the sector model, is a driving force directing agricultural production and land use, which, in turn, have a number of ecological, economic and social consequences. Our results show that a partial de-coupling of agricultural support from production and moderate reductions of commodity prices are likely to yield environmental benefits. In addition, there is a clear trade-off between environmental benefits and production volume and intensity. However, full de-coupling and radical price reductions are not likely to bring any additional environmental benefits but will result in a significant down-scaling and regional concentration of remaining agricultural activities. Hence the presented analysis is an interesting platform for discussion for stakeholders when implementing agricultural policy reforms.