Summary1. Abiotic environmental predictors and broad-scale vegetation have been used widely to model the regional distributions of faunal species within forested regions of Australia. These models have been developed using stepwise statistical procedures but incorporate only limited expert involvement of the type sometimes advocated in distribution modelling. The objectives of this study were twofold. First, to evaluate techniques for incorporating fine-scaled vegetation and growth-stage mapping into models of species distribution. Secondly, to compare methods that incorporate expert opinion directly into statistical models derived using stepwise statistical procedures. 2. Using faunal data from north-east New South Wales, Australia, logistic regression models using fine-scale vegetation and expert opinion were compared with models employing only abiotic and broad vegetation variables. 3. Vegetation and growth-stage information was incorporated into models of species distribution in two ways, both of which used expert opinion to derive new explanatory variables. The first approach amalgamated fine-scaled vegetation classes into broader classes of ecological relevance to fauna. In the second approach, ordinal habitat indices were derived from vegetation and growth-stage mapping using rules specified by an expert panel. These indices described habitat features thought to be relevant to the faunal groups studied (e.g. tree hollow availability, fleshy fruit production). Landscape composition was calculated using these new variables within a 500-m and 2-km radius of each site. Each habitat index generated a spatially neutral variable and two spatial context variables. 4. Expert opinion was incorporated during the pre-modelling, model-fitting and postmodelling stages. At the pre-modelling stage experts developed new explanatory variables based on mapped fine-scale vegetation and growth-stage information. At the model-fitting stage an expert panel selected a subset of potential explanatory variables from the available set. At the post-modelling stage expert opinion modified or refined maps of predicted species distribution generated by statistical models. For comparative purposes expert opinion was also used to develop maps of species distribution by defining rules within a geographical information system, without the aid of statistical modelling. 5. Predictive accuracy was not improved significantly by incorporating habitat indices derived by applying expert opinion to fine-scaled vegetation and growth-stage mapping. Use of expert input at the pre-modelling stage to derive and select potential explanatory variables therefore does not provide more information than that provided by remotely mapped vegetation. 6. The incorporation of expert opinion at the model-fitting or post-modelling stages resulted in small but insignificant gains in predictive accuracy. The predictive accuracy of purely expert models was less than that achieved by approaches based on statistical modelling. 7. The study, one of few available evaluati...
The Menindee Lakes system in the Darling Riverine Plains bioregion in western New South Wales supports a diverse terrestrial vertebrate fauna. A survey of this fauna in spring 2000 and summer 2001 for the New South Wales Department of Land and Water Conservation revealed 12 mammal families (representing 25 species), 60 families of birds (164 species), eight reptile families (39 species), and two families of frogs (at least 7 species). Several new vertebrate species for the area were recorded, including the Stripe-faced Dunnart Sminthopsis macroura, Regent Parrot Polytelis anthopeplus and Woodland Blind Snake Ramphotyphlops proximus. Including historical records, the Menindee Lakes supports at least 305 terrestrial vertebrate species, including 18 species that are considered officially threatened in an international, national, or state context. At least another 18 terrestrial species are considered threatened regionally. Eight bird species are also protected under international agreements (JAMBA and CAMBA). The amount of woodlands in the region is relatively small, typically restricted to floodplains and the periphery of lakes, and usually dominated by either Black Box Eucalyptus largiflorens or River Red Gum E. camaldulensis. These woodlands, particularly the Black Box-dominated communities, were found to support relatively high numbers of terrestrial species because the Lower Darling River, its lakes and floodplains, provide resource-rich habitats in an otherwise resource-poor landscape.
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