Global frequentist fits to the CMSSM and NUHM1 using the MasterCode framework predicted M h ≃ 119 GeV in fits incorporating the (g − 2)µ constraint and ≃ 126 GeV without it. Recent results by ATLAS and CMS could be compatible with a Standard Model-like Higgs boson around M h ≃ 125 GeV. We use the previous MasterCode analysis to calculate the likelihood for a measurement of any nominal Higgs mass within the range of 115 to 130 GeV. Assuming a Higgs mass measurement at M h ≃ 125 GeV, we display updated global likelihood contours in the (m0, m 1/2 ) and other parameter planes of the CMSSM and NUHM1, and present updated likelihood functions for mg, mq R , BR(Bs → µ + µ − ) and the spin-independent dark matter cross section σ SI p . The implications of dropping (g − 2)µ from the fits are also discussed. We furthermore comment on a hypothetical measurement of M h ≃ 119 GeV.

We make a frequentist analysis of the parameter space of the NUHM2, in which the soft supersymmetry (SUSY)-breaking contributions to the masses of the two Higgs multiplets, , vary independently from the universal soft SUSY-breaking contributions to the masses of squarks and sleptons. Our analysis uses the MultiNest sampling algorithm with over points to sample the NUHM2 parameter space. It includes the ATLAS and CMS Higgs mass measurements as well as the ATLAS search for supersymmetric jets +  signals using the full LHC Run 1 data, the measurements of by LHCb and CMS together with other B-physics observables, electroweak precision observables and the XENON100 and LUX searches for spin-independent dark-matter scattering. We find that the preferred regions of the NUHM2 parameter space have negative SUSY-breaking scalar masses squared at the GUT scale for squarks and sleptons, , as well as . The tension present in the CMSSM and NUHM1 between the supersymmetric interpretation of and the absence to date of SUSY at the LHC is not significantly alleviated in the NUHM2. We find that the minimum with 21 degrees of freedom (dof) in the NUHM2, to be compared with in the CMSSM, and in the NUHM1. We find that the one-dimensional likelihood functions for sparticle masses and other observables are similar to those found previously in the CMSSM and NUHM1.

We analyze the impact of data from the full Run 1 of the LHC at 7 and 8 TeV on the CMSSM with and and the NUHM1 with , incorporating the constraints imposed by other experiments such as precision electroweak measurements, flavour measurements, the cosmological density of cold dark matter and the direct search for the scattering of dark matter particles in the LUX experiment. We use the following results from the LHC experiments: ATLAS searches for events with accompanied by jets with the full 7 and 8 TeV data, the ATLAS and CMS measurements of the mass of the Higgs boson, the CMS searches for heavy neutral Higgs bosons and a combination of the LHCb and CMS measurements of and . Our results are based on samplings of the parameter spaces of the CMSSM for both and and of the NUHM1 for with 6.8, 6.2 and 1.6 points, respectively, obtained using the MultiNest tool. The impact of the Higgs-mass constraint is assessed using FeynHiggs 2.10.0, which provides an improved prediction for the masses of the MSSM Higgs bosons in the region of heavy squark masses. It yields in general larger values of than previous versions of FeynHiggs, reducing the pressure on the CMSSM and NUHM1. We find that the global functions for the supersymmetric models vary slowly over most of the parameter spaces allowed by the Higgs-mass and the searches, with best-fit values that are comparable to the for the best Standard Model fit. We provide 95 % CL lower limits on the masses of various sparticles and assess the prospects for observing them during Run 2 of the LHC.

Different mechanisms operate in various regions of the MSSM parameter space to bring the relic density of the lightest neutralino, , assumed here to be the lightest SUSY particle (LSP) and thus the dark matter (DM) particle, into the range allowed by astrophysics and cosmology. These mechanisms include coannihilation with some nearly degenerate next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle such as the lighter stau , stop or chargino , resonant annihilation via direct-channel heavy Higgs bosons H / A, the light Higgs boson h or the Z boson, and enhanced annihilation via a larger Higgsino component of the LSP in the focus-point region. These mechanisms typically select lower-dimensional subspaces in MSSM scenarios such as the CMSSM, NUHM1, NUHM2, and pMSSM10. We analyze how future LHC and direct DM searches can complement each other in the exploration of the different DM mechanisms within these scenarios. We find that the coannihilation regions of the CMSSM, NUHM1, NUHM2 can largely be explored at the LHC via searches for events and long-lived charged particles, whereas their H / A funnel, focus-point and coannihilation regions can largely be explored by the LZ and Darwin DM direct detection experiments. We find that the dominant DM mechanism in our pMSSM10 analysis is coannihilation: parts of its parameter space can be explored by the LHC, and a larger portion by future direct DM searches.

We present a frequentist analysis of the parameter space of the pMSSM10, in which the following ten soft SUSY-breaking parameters are specified independently at the mean scalar top mass scale M SUSY ≡ √ mt 1 mt 2 :the gaugino masses M 1,2,3 , the first-and second-generation squark masses mq 1 = mq 2 , the third-generation squark mass mq 3 , a common slepton mass m˜ and a common trilinear mixing parameter A, as well as the Higgs mixing parameter μ, the pseudoscalar Higgs mass M A and tan β, the ratio of the two Higgs vacuum expectation values. We use the MultiNest sampling algorithm with ∼1.2 ×10 9 points to sample the pMSSM10 parameter space. A dedicated study shows that the sensitivities to strongly interacting sparticle masses of ATLAS and CMS searches for jets, leptons + / E T signals depend only weakly on many of the other pMSSM10 parameters. With the aid of the Atom and Scorpion codes, we also implement the LHC searches for electroweakly interacting sparticles and light stops, so as to confront the pMSSM10 parameter space with all relevant SUSY searches. In addition, our analysis includes Higgs mass and rate measurements using the HiggsSignals code, SUSY Higgs exclusion bounds, the measurements of BR(B s → μ + μ − ) by LHCb and CMS, other B-physics observables, electroweak precision observables, the cold dark matter density and the XENON100 and LUX searches for spin-independent dark matter scattering, assuming that the cold dark matter is mainly provided by the lightest neutralinoχ 0 1 . We show that the pMSSM10 is able to provide a supersymmetric interpretation of (g − 2) μ , unlike the CMSSM, NUHM1 and NUHM2. As a result, we find (omitting Higgs rates) that the minimum χ 2 = 20.5 with 18 degrees of freedom (d.o.f.) in the pMSSM10, corresponding to a χ 2 probability of 30.8 %, to be compared with χ 2 /d.o.f. = 32.8/24 (31.1/23) (30.3/22) in the CMSSM (NUHM1) (NUHM2). We display the one-dimensional likelihood functions for sparticle masses, and we show that they may be significantly lighter in the pMSSM10 than in the other models, e.g., the gluino may be as light as ∼1250 GeV at the 68 % CL, and squarks, stops, electroweak gauginos and sleptons may be much lighter than in the CMSSM, NUHM1 and NUHM2. We discuss the discovery potential of future LHC runs, e + e − colliders and direct detection experiments.