Climate change and rising sea level is transforming global coastlines as corroborated by significant changes in the position of shoreline witnessed through coastal erosion or accretion. Andhra Pradesh has the second longest (972 km) coastline in India. The present study analyzed shoreline change and its future prediction by employing satellite-derived data and geographic information system. End point rate (EPR) and linear regression rate (LRR) statistical tools in the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) were used to estimate historical shoreline change rate between 1973 and 2015. Erosion and accretion of the coastline were delineated from Landsat satellite images for 1973, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015; subsequently, shoreline is predicted for short-term (2025) and long-term (2050) periods. The study showcased that the river mouths of Krishna and Godavari experienced higher rate of change in shoreline position influenced by the deltaic environment and fluvial processes. LRR model prediction depicts the average rate of shoreline change during 2015–2025 will be −4.64 m, while between 2015 and 2050 it will increase to −16.25 m. The study observed that the error between predicted and actual shoreline is higher in the river mouth and deltaic plains. Predicted shoreline position will provide baseline information for adaptation strategies and policy framework for coastal management.
People around the world are prone to frequent and intensive hazards due to the global climate change scenario and human interventions. Particularly, the coastal communities are always prone to various long-term coastal hazards like sea-level rise, shoreline changes, and short-term hazards like tsunami cyclone and storm surge. Coastal Andhra Pradesh state is consisting of 9 district and 670 villages and also having 3.43 Million Population (69.3%). Andhra Pradesh has a vast 972 km long coastline and total coastal area spread over 92,906 km 2 comprising the nine coastal districts. Andhra Pradesh state is prone to various natural hazards, especially cyclone and associated storm surges. There is an extreme loss of life and damage to properties caused by these cyclones. During the past 40 years Andhra Pradesh coast experienced more than 62 cyclones including depression, cyclone surge, and severe cyclone surges. Among these cyclones, there were 32 cyclones which affected the Krishna-Godavari region, comprising four districts, namely East Godavari, West Godavari, Krishna, and Guntur. Therefore, these four districts have been considered for this social vulnerability study to identify the cyclone vulnerable villages. Geospatial applications are used in this study for spatial and non-spatial data processing and spatial analysis. The study indicated that half of the study area (3121.07 km 2 ) lying moderately risk zone and around 7% of the study area observed high vulnerability. This study revealed that the use of geospatial application is most reliable and cost-effective approach for vulnerability and risk mapping and analysis. The result obtained from the present study may serve the baseline information for disaster management planning in the area.
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