The continuous changes in the economic, social and physical agricultural environment call for resilient livestock production systems and food chain networks around the world and Namibia in particular. Because of the low profitability, cattle farming in Namibia is heavily dependent on correct decision making for farmers to survive. Access to digital tools and interactive technologies for farming systems has increased rapidly and it is likely to play a significant role in meeting future challenges. This has not been properly propagated in beef cattle production areas of Namibia. The paper employed ordinary least square and dynamic models to investigate farmer’s net worth in livestock production systems as function of herd size per hectare, carcass price per kilogram and the El Niño Southern Oscillation Index. Results show that herd size per hectare significantly impacts net worth without prior knowledge about 1.627 percent, while exhibiting the impact of 1.523 percent on net worth with prior production knowledge. Farmers thus become more carcass price per kilogramme responsive (increases net worth by 1.131 percent) when prior information is incorporated in the decision making process at farm level. The price elasticity of the two models are 0.60 and 0.70, respectively, points out that improved access to knowledge allows for livestock price responsiveness of 0.1 percent. The significance of these variables calls for introducing technologies to mitigate the impact of changes on cattle production and the agribusiness sector by linking production to climate adaptability for resilient food markets.
Rainfall is generally regarded as the key driver for ecosystem processes, particularly important within the dynamics of semi-arid regions. Since the precipitation impacts the natural environment, human society and the economy, the paper applied rainfall forecasting to avail early warning patterns. The Waterberg rainfall data from 1895 to 2019 was used to determine a better understanding of its pattern. This is necessitated because knowledge of rainfall patterns are required for reviewing production targets and a necessity for decision making in agriculture. Data shows that only 34% of the rainfall years accounted average rainfall, meanwhile 66% of rainfall years is either classified as above or below. Further, results show that the ENSO patterns follow a cyclical pattern, which corresponds to the local Waterberg rainfall. Econometric approaches postulate that there exists volatility of rainfall, effective rainfall, its intensity, cycles and the ENSO data. This paper shows that rainfall forecasting is possible when using a model that takes into account the variation in the ENSO, cyclical pattern and the accumulation of various rainfall cycles. A five year forecast shows that the current experienced drought cycle is coming to an end, and that the prospects of above average years will only persist for 2 years. We recommend that knowledge of the cyclical trend needs to be translated into reliable periodic statements to safeguard Namibia against future famines, possible food shortages and counter rising food prices. Although the methods are robust, they call for further research into the causes of dynamics of observed rainfall variability.
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