The West African Sahel is a harsh environment stressed by a fast-growing population and increasing pressure on the scarce natural resources. Agriculture is the main source of livelihood of the majority of the people living in the area. Increases in temperature and/or modifications in rainfall quantities and distribution will substantially impact on the natural resource on which agriculture depends. The vulnerability of livelihoods based on agriculture is increased and most likely exacerbate and accelerate the current 'downward spiral' of underdevelopment, poverty and environmental degradation. Notably, droughts, a short rainy season and/or very low rainfall will be felt by current systems. To cope with the difficult climatic situation, farm households have developed a range of strategies including selling of animals and on-farm diversification or specialization. At regional level, early warning systems including an operational agro-meteorological information system already provide farmers with crucial information. Substantial political, institutional and financial efforts at national and international level are indispensable for the sustenance of millions of lives. In terms of development, priority needs to be given to adaptation and implementation of comprehensive programs on water management and irrigation, desertification control, development of alternative sources of energy and the promotion of sustainable agricultural practices by farmers.

Abstract:In this chapter we use a bio-economic model to assess the influence of market and structural policies on farm household resource allocation in different rainfall conditions. We present the simulated effects on income level, soil nutrient balances, food security and labour use for three types of households with different farm resource endowment. The model simulates production and consumption decisions taking into account weather conditions, off-farm employment opportunities, market functioning, risk motives and saving and investment behaviour. The results show that a changing frequency of dry years hardly affects farm income because major decisions are based on dry-year conditions. Output price policies particularly enhance the income of the more wealthy households but have a negative effect on soil nutrient balances. Input price subsidies bring about a more sustainable land use. Structural policies that reduce transaction costs generate the largest income improvements while, particularly during dry years, poor farmers benefit relatively more than wealthy farmers. Market reform programmes therefore continue to be a relevant instrument for reducing poverty and enhancing food security.

Technical options in crop and animal husbandry to reduce soil nutrient mining and other forms of natural resource degradation in the Sudano-Sahelian zone should be economically attractive, if they are to be adopted. A model is presented in which agronomic and economic information and goals are combined to explore possibilities for agro-ecologically sustainable and economically viable land use in three different climatic regions in Mali and for a situation of non-degraded soils. The time frame of the study is to the year 2010. For each region, an agro-ecologically sustainable land use system (a combination of crop, livestock and pasture production systems) that maximizes income of the agricultural sector and satisfies self sufficiency targets is identified. Special attention is given to the use of chemical fertilizer in crop activities. It is shown that use of chemical fertilizer is an important element of sustainable and economically viable land use, especially in higher rainfall regions. Population size has a marked effect on optimal land use systems in the regions, but self sufficiency is not endangered even if the population is 50% higher than estimated for 2010. It is argued that results should not be used to simulate the actual situation or future developments, but to define priorities for agricultural development in the Sudano-Sahelian region.

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