The aim of the study is to substantiate the strategic parameters of the development of the agro-industrial sector in the region. In accordance with it, the need to develop a strategy based on inertial, local innovation and the system innovation development scenarios is substantiated. The features of each of the scenarios were determined, relating to the rate of increase in production, as well as the satisfaction of regional needs for these products. The analysis of forecast scenarios for the development of agricultural sectors was carried out on the example of dairy cattle breeding, which showed that the potential created by this industry in the Tambov region is sufficient to implement an innovative approach to solving technological problems of increasing production efficiency.