No abstract

Anthropogenic climate change and increasing greenhouse gas emissions are expected to globally impact the biological function, community structure, and spatial distribution of biodiversity. Many existing studies explore the effect of climate change on biodiversity, generally at a single spatial scale. This study explores the potential effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of seven tree species at two distinct spatial scales: the Coronado National Forest (CNF), a local management area, and the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO), an ecoregional extent. Habitat suitability was determined by extrapolating Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) based on citizen-science tree occurrence records into future climatic conditions using projected 30-year normals for two anthropogenic emissions scenarios through the end of the century. These ENMs, examined at a spatial resolution of 1 km2, are constructed using a mean average ensemble of three commonly used machine learning algorithms. The results show that habitat suitability is expected to decrease for all seven tree species at varying degrees. Results also show that climate-forcing scenario choice appears to be far less important for understanding changes in species habitat suitability than the spatial scale of modeling extent. Additionally, we observed non-linear changes in tree species habitat suitability within the SMO and CNF dependent on forest community type, latitude, and elevational gradient. The paper concludes with a discussion of the necessary steps to verify the estimated alters of these tree species under climate change. Most importantly, provides a framework for characterizing habitat suitability across spatial scales.

This paper analyzes the end uses—food, feed, fiber, fuel, and exports—of biomass production in the U.S. in 1997, 2002, 2007, and 2012. They are also analyzed at the state level in 2012. Biomass production is measured as human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP), an ecological footprint measured as carbon fixed through photosynthesis, derived from data on crop, timber and grazing yields. HANPP was allocated to end uses using publicly available sources from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and internet-based sources publishing data on agricultural trade. HANPP was 717–834 megatons (MT) of carbon per year, which comprised 515–615 MT of crop-based, 105–149 MT timber-based, and 64–76 MT of grazed HANPP. Livestock feed commanded the largest proportion, but decreased from 395 (50%) to 305 MT (42%) of all HANPP and 320 to 240 MT (58–44%) of crop-based HANPP. The proportion allocated to exports was stable at 118–141 MT (17–18%) of total HANPP and 112–133 MT (21–23%) of crop-based HANPP. Biofiber decreased from 141 MT (18%) to 97 MT (13%) of all HANPP. Biofuel increased strongly from 11 MT to 98 MT, from 1% to 14% of all HANPP and 2% to 18% of crop-based HANPP, surpassing food and biofiber by 2012. Direct food commanded 89–105 MT, the lowest proportion at 12–13% of all HANPP, and 17–18% of crop-based HANPP. The highly fertile Midwest and the drought-prone Intermountain West stand out as regions where a very small percentage of biomass is allocated to direct human food. The high proportions of biomass production allocated to nonfood uses is consistent with the tragedy of ecosystem services and commodification of nature frameworks. Reducing these proportions presents opportunities for improving ecosystem services, food security, and human well-being.