Strong gravitational lens systems with time delays between the multiple images allow measurements of time-delay distances, which are primarily sensitive to the Hubble constant that is key to probing dark energy, neutrino physics, and the spatial curvature of the Universe, as well as discovering new physics. We present H0LiCOW (H 0 Lenses in COSMOGRAIL's Wellspring), a program that aims to measure H 0 with < 3.5% uncertainty from five lens systems (B1608+656, RXJ1131−1231, HE 0435−1223, WFI2033−4723 and HE 1104−1805). We have been acquiring (1) time delays through COSMOGRAIL and Very Large Array monitoring, (2) high-resolution Hubble Space Telescope imaging for the lens mass modeling, (3) wide-field imaging and spectroscopy to characterize the lens environment, and (4) moderate-resolution spectroscopy to obtain the stellar velocity dispersion of the lenses for mass modeling. In cosmological models with one-parameter extension to flat ΛCDM, we expect to measure H 0 to < 3.5% in most models, spatial curvature Ω k to 0.004, w to 0.14, and the effective number of neutrino species to 0.2 (1σ uncertainties) when combined with current CMB experiments. These are, respectively, a factor of ∼ 15, ∼ 2, and ∼ 1.5 tighter than CMB alone. Our data set will further enable us to study the stellar initial mass function of the lens galaxies, and the co-evolution of supermassive black holes and their host galaxies. This program will provide a foundation for extracting cosmological distances from the hundreds of time-delay lenses that are expected to be discovered in current and future surveys.

We present the results of the first strong lens time delay challenge. The motivation, experimental design, and entry level challenge are described in a companion paper. This paper presents the main challenge, TDC1, which consisted of analyzing thousands of simulated light curves blindly. The observational properties of the light curves cover the range in quality obtained for current targeted efforts (e.g., COSMOGRAIL) and expected from future synoptic surveys (e.g., LSST), and include simulated systematic errors. Seven teams participated in TDC1, submitting results from 78 different method variants. After a describing each method, we compute and analyze basic statistics measuring accuracy (or bias) A, goodness of fit χ 2 , precision P , and success rate f . For some methods we identify outliers as an important issue. Other methods show that outliers can be controlled via visual inspection or conservative quality control. Several methods are competitive, i.e., give |A| < 0.03, P < 0.03, and χ 2 < 1.5, with some of the methods already reaching sub-percent accuracy. The fraction of light curves yielding a time delay measurement is typically in the range f =20-40%. It depends strongly on the quality of the data: COSMOGRAIL-quality cadence and light curve lengths yield significantly higher f than does sparser sampling. Taking the results of TDC1 at face value, we estimate that LSST should provide around 400 robust time-delay measurements, each with P < 0.03 and |A| < 0.01, comparable to current lens modeling uncertainties. In terms of observing strategies, we find that A and f depend mostly on season length, while P depends mostly on cadence and campaign duration.

The standard siren approach of gravitational wave cosmology appeals to the direct luminosity distance estimation through the waveform signals from inspiralling double compact binaries, especially those with electromagnetic counterparts providing redshifts. It is limited by the calibration uncertainties in strain amplitude and relies on the fine details of the waveform. The Einstein telescope is expected to produce 104–105 gravitational wave detections per year, 50–100 of which will be lensed. Here, we report a waveform-independent strategy to achieve precise cosmography by combining the accurately measured time delays from strongly lensed gravitational wave signals with the images and redshifts observed in the electromagnetic domain. We demonstrate that just 10 such systems can provide a Hubble constant uncertainty of 0.68% for a flat lambda cold dark matter universe in the era of third-generation ground-based detectors.