No abstract

Significance This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

Importance Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiated within several weeks of HIV infection in adults limits proviral reservoirs that preclude HIV cure. Biomarkers of restricted proviral reservoirs may aid in the monitoring of HIV remission or cure. Objectives To quantify peripheral blood proviral reservoir size in perinatally HIV-infected adolescents and to identify correlates of limited proviral reservoirs. Design, Setting, and Participants A cross-sectional study including 144 perinatally HIV-infected (PHIV+) youth (median age: 14.3 years), enrolled in the US-based Pediatric HIV/AIDS Cohort Study, on durable (median: 10.2 years) cART, stratified by age at virologic control. Main Outcome and Measures The primary endpoint was peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) proviral load following virologic control at different ages. Correlations between proviral load and markers of active HIV production (HIV-specific antibodies, 2-long terminal repeat (2-LTR) circles), and markers of immune activation and inflammation were also assessed. Results Proviral reservoir size was markedly reduced in the PHIV+ youth who achieved virologic control by age 1 year (4.2 [interquartile range, 2.6-8 6] copies per 1 million PBMCs) compared to those who achieved virologic control between 1-5 years of age (19.4 [interquartile range, 5.5-99.8] copies per 1 million PBMCs) or after age 5 years (−(70.7 [interquartile range, 23.2-209.4] copies per 1 million PBMCs; P < .00l). A proviral burden <10 copies/million PBMCs was measured in 11 (79%), 20 (40%), and 13 (18%) participants with virologic control at ages <1 year, 1-5 years, and >5 years, respectively (p<0.001). Lower proviral load was associated with undetectable 2-LTR circles (p<0.001) and HIV negative or indeterminate serostatus (p<0.001), but not with concentrations of soluble immune activation markers CD14 and CD163. Conclusions and Relevance Early effective cART along with prolonged virologic suppression after perinatal HIV infection leads to negligible peripheral blood proviral reservoirs in adolescence and is associated with negative or indeterminate HIV serostatus. These findings highlight the long-term effect of early effective control of HIV replication on biomarkers of HIV persistence in perinatal infection and the utility of HIV serostatus as a biomarker for small proviral reservoir size, though not necessarily of cure.

In this study, infrared thermography (IRT) was assessed as a means of detecting foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV)-infected cattle before and after the development of clinical signs. Preliminary IRT imaging demonstrated that foot temperatures increased in FMDV-infected animals. The maximum foot temperatures of healthy (n=53), directly inoculated (DI) (n=12), contact (CT) (n=6), and vaccine trial (VT) (n=21) cattle were measured over the course of FMD infection. A cut-off value was established at 34.4 degrees C (sensitivity=61.1%, specificity=87.7%) with the aim of detecting FMDV-infected animals both before and after clinical signs were observed. Seven of 12 (58%) DI and 3/6 (50%) CT animals showed maximum foot temperatures exceeding the 34.4 degrees C cut-off before the development of foot vesicles. In contrast, only 5/21 (24%) VT animals displayed pre-clinical foot temperatures above this cut-off possibly indicating partial vaccine protection of this group. These results show IRT as a promising screening technology to quickly identify potentially infected animals for confirmatory diagnostic testing during FMD outbreaks. Further evaluation of this technology is needed to determine the value of IRT in detecting animals with mild clinical signs or sub-clinical infections.