Multi-temporal Landsat images from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) acquired in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008 and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) from 2017, are used for analysing and predicting the spatio-temporal distributions of land use/land cover (LULC) categories in the Halgurd-Sakran Core Zone (HSCZ) of the National Park in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. The aim of this article was to explore the LULC dynamics in the HSCZ to assess where LULC changes are expected to occur under two different business-as-usual (BAU) assumptions. Two scenarios have been assumed in the present study. The first scenario, addresses the BAU assumption to show what would happen if the past trend in 1993–1998–2003 has continued until 2023 under continuing the United Nations (UN) sanctions against Iraq and particularly Kurdistan region, which extended from 1990 to 2003. Whereas, the second scenario represents the BAU assumption to show what would happen if the past trend in 2003–2008–2017 has to continue until 2023, viz. after the end of UN sanctions. Future land use changes are simulated to the year 2023 using a Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain model under two different scenarios (Iraq under siege and Iraq after siege). Four LULC classes were classified from Landsat using Random Forest (RF). Their accuracy was evaluated using κ and overall accuracy. The CA-Markov chain method in TerrSet is applied based on the past trends of the land use changes from 1993 to 1998 for the first scenario and from 2003 to 2008 for the second scenario. Based on this model, predicted land use maps for the 2023 are generated. Changes between two BAU scenarios under two different conditions have been quantitatively as well as spatially analysed. Overall, the results suggest a trend towards stable and homogeneous areas in the next 6 years as shown in the second scenario. This situation will have positive implication on the park.

[1] Carbonate substrates (dolomites and limestones) are susceptible to fungal attack that results in significant microbial diagenesis of these substrates. In a 15-day experimental study, fungi growing in Petri dishes from airborne spores attacked petrographic thin sections and chips prepared from the dolomites of Terwagne Formation (Viséan, Bocahut quarry at Avesnes-sur-Helpe, northern France) and limestones of the Morrone di Pacentro Formation (Lower Cretaceous, Italy). The analyses of the fungal material (samples of mycelia), thin sections and chips under optical microscopy, scanning electron microscope (SEM), energy dispersive X-ray (EDX), X-ray diffraction (XRD), Raman spectroscopy and stable isotopes (C and O) revealed an extensive fungally induced diagenesis. The results indicate strong diagenesis and biomineral neomorphism: neo-dolomite, glushinskite, weddellite, whewellite and possibly struvite, as well as intense substrate ''de-micritization'' and ''micritization'' with oxalates, grain bridging and cementation, open space filling, formation of intergranular and intragranular porosity, and permeability enhancement. Advanced stages of diagenesis were characterized by dissolution and replacement of original minerals by new substrates produced by fungal biomineralization. The formation of new substrates on the original attacked surfaces produced microscale stratification. Stable isotope analysis of fungal biomineralized material and of attacked and unattacked chip surfaces revealed marked differences in their isotopic signatures. The C and O isotopes of biomineralized material within the fungal mass were fractionated differently as compared to the signature measured in the original and unattacked surfaces. In sedimentary cycles, such microbially modified isotopic signature of carbonate substrates may be used to define microbial events, and consequently whether certain types of diagenesis were produced by microbial interaction. The finding of neo-dolomite formed during fungi-dolomite substrate interaction suggests the possibility of sedimentary dolomite recycling in a fungal microenvironment. The results of this experimental study confirm the significant role of fungi in reshaping carbonate substrates and forming new biominerals in the natural environment.

Hydrothermal diagenesis during the Zagros Orogeny produced three phases of saddle dolomites (SD1, SD2, and SD3) and two phases of blocky calcites (CI and CII) in the studied sections of Bekhme Formation (Fm) (Campanian–Maastrichtian). Field observations, as well as petrographic, cathodoluminescence (CL), Scanning Elecron Microscope (SEM), and oxygen–carbon isotope analyses, indicated that the unit went through multiple submergence–emergence phases after or during hydrothermal diagenesis. These phases resulted in a characteristic calcretized 2–6-m-thick layer within the Bekhme Fm. Several pedogenic textures (e.g., alveolar, pisolite, and laminar fabric microfeatures) were observed. Strong evidence of microbial alteration and diagenesis in this formation brings new insights into its depositional history. The microbial activities developed on the original mineral surface were associated with a great variety of processes including dissolution, re-precipitation, replacement, open-space fillings, microporosity development, grain bridging, and micritization. Probable oxalate pseudomorphs embedded in these fabrics and regular filaments preserved along crystal boundaries suggest the activity of fungi, while frequent coccoidal, rod-like, and chain-like forms attached to the surfaces of dolomitic and calcitic crystals point to bacterial colonization. Extracellular polymeric substance (EPS) was often visible with fungal and bacterial forms. These features, together with stable isotope data, invoke that near-surface conditions occurred sporadically in the Bekhme Fm after the first generation of hydrothermal dolomitization. These new findings allow recognition of unreported sedimentological phases based on new evidence in the Spelek–Sulauk area during the Upper Cretaceous.

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