Soil is the largest organic carbon (C) pool of terrestrial ecosystems, and C loss from soil accounts for a large proportion of land‐atmosphere C exchange. Therefore, a small change in soil organic C (SOC) can affect atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and climate change. In the past decades, a wide variety of studies have been conducted to quantify global SOC stocks and soil C exchange with the atmosphere through site measurements, inventories, and empirical/process‐based modeling. However, these estimates are highly uncertain, and identifying major driving forces controlling soil C dynamics remains a key research challenge. This study has compiled century‐long (1901–2010) estimates of SOC storage and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) from 10 terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) in the Multi‐scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project and two observation‐based data sets. The 10 TBM ensemble shows that global SOC estimate ranges from 425 to 2111 Pg C (1 Pg = 1015 g) with a median value of 1158 Pg C in 2010. The models estimate a broad range of Rh from 35 to 69 Pg C yr−1 with a median value of 51 Pg C yr−1 during 2001–2010. The largest uncertainty in SOC stocks exists in the 40–65°N latitude whereas the largest cross‐model divergence in Rh are in the tropics. The modeled SOC change during 1901–2010 ranges from −70 Pg C to 86 Pg C, but in some models the SOC change has a different sign from the change of total C stock, implying very different contribution of vegetation and soil pools in determining the terrestrial C budget among models. The model ensemble‐estimated mean residence time of SOC shows a reduction of 3.4 years over the past century, which accelerate C cycling through the land biosphere. All the models agreed that climate and land use changes decreased SOC stocks, while elevated atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen deposition over intact ecosystems increased SOC stocks—even though the responses varied significantly among models. Model representations of temperature and moisture sensitivity, nutrient limitation, and land use partially explain the divergent estimates of global SOC stocks and soil C fluxes in this study. In addition, a major source of systematic error in model estimations relates to nonmodeled SOC storage in wetlands and peatlands, as well as to old C storage in deep soil layers.

Greenhouse gas (GHG)‐induced climate change is among the most pressing sustainability challenges facing humanity today, posing serious risks for ecosystem health. Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are the two most important GHGs after carbon dioxide (CO2), but their regional and global budgets are not well known. In this study, we applied a process‐based coupled biogeochemical model to concurrently estimate the magnitude and spatial and temporal patterns of CH4 and N2O fluxes as driven by multiple environmental changes, including climate variability, rising atmospheric CO2, increasing nitrogen deposition, tropospheric ozone pollution, land use change, and nitrogen fertilizer use. The estimated CH4 and N2O emissions from global land ecosystems during 1981–2010 were 144.39 ± 12.90 Tg C/yr (mean ± 2 SE; 1 Tg = 1012 g) and 12.52 ± 0.74 Tg N/yr, respectively. Our simulations indicated a significant (P < 0.01) annually increasing trend for CH4 (0.43 ± 0.06 Tg C/yr) and N2O (0.14 ± 0.02 Tg N/yr) in the study period. CH4 and N2O emissions increased significantly in most climatic zones and continents, especially in the tropical regions and Asia. The most rapid increase in CH4 emission was found in natural wetlands and rice fields due to increased rice cultivation area and climate warming. N2O emission increased substantially in all the biome types and the largest increase occurred in upland crops due to increasing air temperature and nitrogen fertilizer use. Clearly, the three major GHGs (CH4, N2O, and CO2) should be simultaneously considered when evaluating if a policy is effective to mitigate climate change.

In rice cultivation, there are controversial reports on net impacts of nitrogen (N) fertilizers on methane (CH ) emissions. Nitrogen fertilizers increase crop growth as well as alter CH producing (Methanogens) and consuming (Methanotrophs) microbes, and thereby produce complex effects on CH emissions. Objectives of this study were to determine net impact of N fertilizers on CH emissions and to identify their underlying mechanisms in the rice soils. Database was obtained from 33 published papers that contained CH emissions observations from N fertilizer (28-406 kg N ha ) treatment and its control. Results have indicated that N fertilizers increased CH emissions in 98 of 155 data pairs in rice soils. Response of CH emissions per kg N fertilizer was significantly (P < 0.05) greater at < 140 kg N ha than > 140 kg N ha indicating that substrate switch from CH to ammonia by Methanotrophs may not be a dominant mechanism for increased CH emissions. On the contrary, decreased CH emission in intermittent drainage by N fertilizers has suggested the stimulation of Methanotrophs in rice soils. Effects of N fertilizer stimulated Methanotrophs in reducing CH emissions were modified by the continuous flood irrigation due to limitation of oxygen to Methanotrophs. Greater response of CH emissions per kg N fertilizer in urea than ammonia sulfate probably indicated the interference of sulfate in the CH production process. Overall, response of CH emissions to N fertilizers was correlated with N-induced crop yield (r = +0.39; P< 0.01), probably due to increased carbon substrates for Methanogens. Using CH emission observations, this meta-analysis has identified dominant microbial processes that control net effects of N fertilizers on CH emissions in rice soils. Finally, we have provided a conceptual model that included microbial processes and controlling factors to predict effects of N fertilizers on CH emissions in rice soils.

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Given the importance of the potential positive feedback between methane (CH4) emissions and climate change, it is critical to accurately estimate the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of CH4 emissions from global rice fields and better understand the underlying determinants governing the emissions. Here we used a coupled biogeochemical model in combination with satellite‐derived contemporary inundation area to quantify the magnitude and spatiotemporal variation of CH4 emissions from global rice fields and attribute the environmental controls of CH4 emissions during 1901–2010. Our study estimated that CH4 emissions from global rice fields varied from 18.3 ± 0.1 Tg CH4/yr (Avg. ±1 SD) under intermittent irrigation to 38.8 ± 1.0 Tg CH4/yr under continuous flooding in the 2000s, indicating that the magnitude of CH4 emissions from global rice fields is largely dependent on different water schemes. Over the past 110 years, our simulated results showed that global CH4 emissions from rice cultivation increased by 85%. The expansion of rice fields was the dominant factor for the increasing trends of CH4 emissions, followed by elevated CO2 concentration, and nitrogen fertilizer use. On the contrary, climate variability had reduced the cumulative CH4 emissions for most of the years over the study period. Our results imply that CH4 emissions from global rice fields could be reduced through optimizing irrigation practices. Therefore, the future magnitude of CH4 emissions from rice fields will be determined by the human demand for rice production as well as the implementation of optimized water management practices.