In this paper, the fractional-order generalization of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model for predicting the spread of the COVID-19 disease is presented. The time-domain model implementation is based on the fixed-step method using the nabla fractional-order difference defined by Grünwald-Letnikov formula. We study the influence of fractional order values on the dynamic properties of the proposed fractional-order SIR model. In modeling the COVID-19 transmission, the model’s parameters are estimated while using the genetic algorithm. The model prediction results for the spread of COVID-19 in Italy and Spain confirm the usefulness of the introduced methodology.

This paper presents new results in implementation of parallel computing in modeling of fractional-order state-space systems. The methods considered in the paper are based on the Euler fixed-step discretization scheme and the Grünwald-Letnikov definition of the fractional-order derivative. Two different parallelization approaches for modeling of fractional-order state-space systems are proposed, which are implemented both in Central Processing Unit (CPU)- and Graphical Processing Unit (GPU)-based hardware environments. Simulation examples show high efficiency of the introduced parallelization schemes. Execution times of the introduced methodology are significantly lower than for the classical, commonly used simulation environment.

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